Weekly Forex Forecast: June 4 – 8 2018 – Forex Trading Guide

welcome to our weekly forex marketanalysis call and this is in preparation for training for the week of June 4th to8th of 2018 before we dive in as always a need to provide a disclaimer this isfor educational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice tradingis a risky business so please do be careful with your money all right so asusual we'll get started by taking a look at our forex factory calendar so this isalways the first thing I look at before I start the week off so we'll take alook at this week so starting the week off here excuse me a little under theweather just recovering from last week here I was kind of under the weatherlast week really badly so getting on soplease or getting out of it right nowsome things do a beer with me starting off on Sunday here tonight in the Asiansession we do have retail sales data out of Australia and these kind of numbersare important so it will have an impact specially if there's a miss or or thenumber is much better than expected so we will have a reaction to thatconstruction PMI numbers for British pound and that is on Monday and then wehave going into it we have RBA rate statement so Reserve Bank of Australiahas been one of the central banks that have actually not gone completely so ifthey haven't completely gone into the raising of rates right now so they'vebeen holding off so usually Australia and New Zealand they tend to have arejust the commodity currencies countries in general tend to have slightly higherinterest rates or they have had in the last little bit but now with the Fedraising rates that has changed and yet we have seen Australia and New Zealandhave not done that interest rate hike so it will be important to see out of thestatement if they are leaning more towards doingany of that interest really if even to start talking about the strength of theeconomy that will be positive they're not expected to raise rates at thispoint they're expected to stay at where they are but if the commentary suggeststhings like that the economy is looking good things like that and they arepositive about the economy and the future of the economy that will thenstart drawing the market sentiment towards an interest rate hike whetherthey talk about it or not so that's something to watch out for that will bebullish but now with the current state of things with the with the tariffs andthings like that if they show that there's concern showconcern and that will then have a negative impact so very very importantcentral banks at this point are very important because they're changingmonetary policy services PMI so bunch of PMI numbers out of the eurozone theyusually have an impact but the services PMI here for British Pound is importantbecause it is a service driven economy so these numbers are very important soeither a miss or if they come in very positive we'll have the same reaction onBritish Pound here as well and then we have ECB President Draghi speaking againeasily hasn't really been talking about increasing interest rate or doing anykind of interest rate hike at this point but now with like I said the currentstate you is has also been you know it's is also one of the hundreds of countriesbut European Union in itself they are they're going getting tariffs as well soas a result of that expect to if we if we see any kind of commentary aroundthat and concern around the state of things that would be a negative for Euroor if if the commentary is positive then that could have a positive impact oneuro so we have seen all the or the US dollar has been very strong all thecrosses have dropped so we may be kind of into this week into changing of thatmaybe retracements and stuff like that so we'll take a look at the charts butfor now from just from a fundamentalist prospector what's going on in the markets perspective those are the comments thatwe have to pay attention to because they will again be in the background thisweek as well I send non-manufacturing numbers for theUS will be very important GDP number is always important so because it shows youknow production and economy so that would be important for Australian dollartrade balance numbers for Canada Canada is an in an interesting place so lasttime Bank of Canada they have been neutral for a bit and they were almostturning a little bit bearish not cutting rates but just the commentary had turnedbearish last time though they dropped certain comments out of their statementand just dropping of those comments we saw that that made the dollar cad a dropas a result of Canadian dollar strengthened and we saw dollar cad dropand a lot of the Canadian dollar pairs drop so now in the background for Canadawhat's going on we do not have an after deal at this point and now with Canadabeing such a closed trade partner with the US Canada is also getting hit rightwith the terrorists for aluminum and still steel and as a result of that itwill have a negative impact on the Canadian economy so Prime MinisterTrudeau did finally you know take his gloves off and say that Canada is goingto basically do the same put tariffs on and things like that but anyway overallthis this can be negative for for Canada in terms of the economic growth so tradebalance numbers here if you get a negative number here it will with thebackground what's going on in the background this could have a more of anegative impact if the trade balance numbers are worse than expected so justwatch out for that crude oil inventories will have an impact on on the US dollaras well as Canadian dollar there as well again trade balance number for Australiawith the background of tariffs and everything else the trade balancenumbers become very important because that's what u.

S.

is trying to trying tokind of get back in line meant right now us is a bigimporter so there's a big negative number every time and President Trump istrying to reverse some of the impact of that so he's trying to keep stuff or puttariffs on imports so that country will use more of its own everything that'smade within the country so trade balance at this point just like we talked aboutmonetary policy trade balance numbers become very very important with thatgoing on in the background and then of course we have government Bank of Canadagovernor polo speaking just like Draghi and his speech there may be referencenot necessarily there may be a reference to the tariffs and concern around thatand that can create some negative impact so keep that in mind and then finally onFriday we have employment numbers out of Canada so with everything going on inthe background like I said these numbers do tend to become very importantespecially these numbers that show the state of the economy and employmentnumbers are one of those numbers all right so now to the fun part let's go onto our charts and take a look at what we have all right so like I said for thelast several weeks we have seen a big drop in the u.

S.

crosses and now it maybe time for things to either start reversing or our poll bots and we sawthat later part of the week on Wednesday sorry I should say Wednesday ThursdayFriday there was that impact so let's take a look at what we're looking atthis week all right so we do have a large pin on the downside so this pinshows rejection and we were not our sellers were not able to bring the pricelower and the rejection means that we could start seeing price moving up sofirst target here or my target here would be one point one eight twentylevel and the type of move that we could see either we could see a double bottomtype of thing here but that may not happen considering the size of this pinthat there's a big big move to the downside so whatcould see is potentially we could see price pullback and I'm just going tomark that with a white line here so this could be our pullback level we could seea bit of a drop and then price pulling back up higher and looking for price andmove higher the target is one point one eight twenty and I'm looking for priceto start moving higher now for those pullback second target will be one pointtwo zero zero level so those are the couple of targets to the upside here foreuro but I'm looking for a bit of a drop in them and looking for price to kind ofcome back into these levels and test these levels once again so bias is tothe upside after a bit of a pullback there pound dollar here same thing herewe saw we saw price pulling back and if you take a look at the weekly we have abullish pin bar here so now I'm looking for price to move up higher here as wellbiases to the upside between euro and pound currently euro looks a little bitweaker and some of that is because of the Italian government formationelections and stuff like that so there was no they were having trouble formingthe government so now they have on Friday we saw the announcement I thinkwas Friday that new coalition government has been formed and that pushed the euroup as a result of performing the government or there were rumors that thegovernment was going to get formed which was pushing the euro up and then thegovernment Italian government that are formed was anti-eu so as a result ofthat we did see a bit of a drop in the Euro there but overall euro because ofthe political backdrop has been weaker than the pound so with this one this islooking more bullish we have a bullish pin bar so I'm looking for price to moveup higher into one point 36 20 ish level here so bias is bullish for pound dollarAussie dollar here Ozzy has been trading in this range and it did drop and thenpulled back once again so another thing to keep in mind we got we saw reallypositive numbers for the non-farm payroll reporton Friday and generally when we see positive numbers we expect a reactionfrom the market so positive especially non-farm payroll numbers especially withthe earnings growth when the numbers come in as positive also all the numbersare positive when that happens usually you expect to see strength in thecurrency right however we saw that brief now President Trump did tweet out towatch out for those numbers and president's office yes the I guess thesenumbers want ahead of time so him sort of tweeting that took away from some ofthat response because we started to see all the u.

S.

crosses drop ahead of thenumbers being released and that was you to the tweet that came from PresidentTrump however even after the tweet after that pull back we should have seen adrop in u.

S.

dollar crosses so US dollar should have strengthened on the back ofthose numbers but because we didn't see it so when we see that the data doesn'tproduce the reaction that we expected to produce even though it was priced in weshould have still saw seen that continuation however we did not see thatand that usually means that if it could move in the opposite direction right sothat's why we could see these pull backs and stuff like that so here we do have abullish pin bar for aussie US dollar weekly as well now we are intoresistance right over here so that we have to be careful with because it's animportant support or resistance that will my bias is to the upside though andI'm looking for price to break through and go to the next level and my targethere will be 76 0.

76 50 level and then the next target will be all the way into0.

78 hundred level so biases to the upside for Aussie US dollar now do keepin mind we do have our be a statement rate statement and if there is a concernany bearishness or any kind of comments that are dovish from RBA could changethe state of things here but we can see for several weeks here aussiedollar has not been able to break to the downside and when price isn't though inone direction chances are it's gonna go in the opposite direction so since itsfailed so many times it makes sense that it will go highersame thing here price could not break down and it went higher same thing overhere as well we saw the price was just had number of pens but could not breakdown and as we can see it went higher from there so that's the type ofreaction i'm expecting here as well but we do need to see a break above thisnumber or above this resistance level because that is an important resistancelevel so bias is to the upside for aussie dollar new zealand dollar nowwith this one here as well we do have a bullish candle close again we are intoresistance but my bias is to the upside and my target here will be 0.

72 hundredlevel again we have to see a break of this resistance level here but biasagain stays to the upside for new zealand dollar a dollar cad here dollarcad has been interesting we saw a drop and then pull back and now it's holdingbelow this level from the daily right so we have a bit of from the dailyperspective the clothes on friday was just is very neutral but we do have thishead and shoulders type of thing forming on the daily this is an importantsupport resistance level so with this one here if we just take a look at letme get rid of some of these lines here so if you just take a look at where itis currently we have been in this range from weekly perspective for a number ofweeks here it's just been trading right here hasn't really gone much further sowith this one here I would look for price to drop the close here is in formof a spinning top those you hear there is it's very very neutral so it doesn'treally have strength on any side here what I would look for for dollar cadwould be a draw particularly if everything else all the other us crossesstart to go up as well I would expect want to drop so my biases to thedownside 1.

27 50 will be my target so we could see a bit of a retest at thatlevel and then a drop but the bias for dollar cad is to the downside and theneuro pound here you're a pound has gone back and forth we are still in thatrange pushing into the bottom of the range so I'm looking for price to dropfurther into this 8620 level here to the downside and then if it does go furtherwe'll be looking for 8460 0.

8 460 a first target is 0.

86 20 this is not abig mover it's just been kind of choppy going back and forth as we can see butoverall there's a slight slight bias to the downside so overall the biases tothe downside we are pushing into the low so we could break this one and go to thenext level so biases to the downside for Euro Pound euro Swiss franc here thishas been an interesting one just like Japanese yen so Swiss franc and Japaneseyen are both safe haven currencies when we see uncertainty in the market wegenerally tend to see these currencies will strengthen now they we have seenthis big drop here and we did see price price cut has kind of gone back andforth with both Japanese yen and Swiss franc we did see a big drop and thenprice went back and forth now the it's it's interesting sentiment is what'sdriving this more so than the technicals or or technicals are usually our driversare the fundamentals so with this one we see a large pin to the downside so whatthat suggests is that we could start saying prices moving up but I would lookat or keep an ear out for the comments that are coming out any uncertainty inthe market could cause this to drop further there is bearish net still inthe candle here because we do have red candle but the rejection here pin hereshows the rejection and as a result of the rejection I would be looking forprice to move up higher we could see a drop and a retestbut my biases to the upsides I'm looking for 1.

1 620 as the target for euro Swissfranc pound Swiss franc this one again we have a doji we have a more for Pennbar type of doji here large pin to the downside so we could see price startingto pull back here as well but like I said all Swiss pairs this will apply toif there is uncertainty in the market or if you start seeing more comments andthings like that that put pressure on equities market we are likely to seeflow of money into the safe haven assets and they could react to that this willbe just sentiment driven moves as opposed to really based on our technicalanalysis so always keep that in mind but right now this looks bullish here I'mlooking for price to move up higher once it breaks the high the target would be a1.

30 250 to the upside so bias is bullish dollars Swiss franc here thisone is interesting we have pins on both sides there's still bearishness in thecandle because it is still moving lower here now this is this is our this is howit looks right so what we could see here is price either drops further like thisand then starts to pull back so we have seen an initial move to the upside andthen a pullback and then a further continuation to the upside so that'ssomething that I would watch out for however with the US dollar weakening ifit does weaken across the board this will get impacted as well so we couldsee a further drop but overall I would start to look for this move to theupside specially if other Swiss crosses start to pull back higher so my bias forthis one is I think we could still see price moving lower now we are intosupport level right here as we can see price has reacted at these levels so I'mlooking for perhaps a retest and then price to move back into the top hereback into 99 60 or 90 980 level to the upside so I would wait and thenif we get rejection here looking for price and move up higher pound cat herepound is looking bullish overall across the board right now and this one is alsobullish pin bar so looking for price to move up higher next target would be 1.

7550 level to the upside so bias is foolish and actually let's go take alook at yen crosses here so with our pound Iansame thing we have a pin bar doji thing here so this one is also looking bullishmy target would be let me just get rid of a few of these okay so I'm lookingfor price to go and test the high one 50 20 level will be the target to theupside so there is plenty of room but like I said if we start to hear any kindof risk aversion going on in the market then safe haven currencies will beimpacted by that but right now biases bullish 150 point 20 will be the targetto the upside and then we have a big pin on euro yen same story herebarring any kind of risk aversion moves our commentary to that respect I amlooking for price to start moving higher here so as euro strengthens in acrossother pairs I am looking for price to do this particular type or this type ofmove so we could still see a drop but overall looking for price to move uphigher one-thirty one-twenty will be the targetto the upside so bullish for euro yen as well in terms of our dollar yen samething we have a pin bar here looking for price to move up higher target would behundred and eleven point five zero so bullish for dollar yen and Aussie yensame thing looking for price to move up higher we have seen a rejection a coupleof times at the bottom here double bottom now looking for it to go back andthis is again a range as well right so if you take a look at this oneprice has been trading in this range for a while so I'm looking for price to gotowards the top of the range at 8450 level here and then let's do cadionquickly again looking bullish here we have we have a pin bar and as a resultlooking for price to move up higher so bias is bullish for New Zealand yen as acircadian sorry cadion as well and and we do need to see a break of the highhere but bias is foolish New Zealand yen same thing this oneactually looks more bullish than cadion does at the moment so a bullish for NewZealand yen as well so looking for price to move up higher in your 7750 level tothe upside gold let's stuff so we'll the gold and oil as well let's take a lookgold here the gold here is interesting it's range bound at the moment so wewere trading our gold was trading in this range for the longest time fourweeks it stayed here and we were looking forprice to drop it finally fell through so now it's holding below the range so whenprice holds below the range generally what tends to happen here let me justgrab yellow here drop pullback drop right so right now what it's doing isholding below this level bottom of the range which means suggest thecontinuation to the downside so right now I'm looking for price to come in tothe bottom of the range at 12 8550 level now again just the same thing that wehave to watch out for all the safe-haven assets Gold is also a safe haven assetsso we have yen sorry yen Swiss flag gold bonds all of those are safe hiddenassets assets and usually when there's uncertainty in the market money tends toflow into those assets so right now it's holding belowand look I'm looking for a drop in to 112 85 50 level now if it does break sowe have to look out for break first otherwise they could just keep on goinglike this kind of what it did here for the longest time so need to see a breakbelow for a continuation move and then a further move into 1263 level here butright now just looking for it to come down into 1285 level here from the dailyperspective as we can see see how it's holding below this previous support orresistance level this was our range that price had been trading in for a numberof weeks finally fell through and then pulled back into the bottom of the rangenow I'm looking for price to drop into into this new range here bottom of thisnew range then a pullback and a further drop so this is this is the type ofpullbacks that we tend to see and now looking for a further drop but againfirst move first bias is this because it could do that and then sort of go backand forth like this that's something to watch out for and yeah so bias from aweekly perspective would be to the downside oil has been dropping here forour last number of days so this is the similar move that we have in oil here aswell now oil with us pulling out of the Iranian deal we saw oil speculation onbasically everybody was expecting there to be what's the word I'm looking forhere they were expecting there to be a shortage of oil even though we have alot of oil inventories at the moment and there's a lot of oil reserves at themoment they were projecting that maybe later either into 28 you know next year2019 we may see some shortages of oil but there's a lot of production so OPEChas been cutting production everybody has been cutting production so OPEC cameout and said that they would be they would look at potentially increasingproduction if they saw that the oil inventories were really dropping or theyshortage in oil before the shoulder comes to be they will let their membercountries increase production as a result of that we saw oil drop so biasfor oil is to the downside we have seen we saw this drop saw pullback and nowI'm looking for price to drop further 63 73 will be the target to the downsidefor oil but from daily perspective here this is looking bearish from weeklyperspective big bearish candle close here I'm looking for price to dropfurther and actually we could potentially go all the way into 60 to 80or even 60 100 level here actually no so let's let's keep it at 62it could go all the way into actual yeah this is a good level it can go see thisbig resistance here price could not break that before it dropped so thatcould act as support which is what it did here so I'm looking for price so itcould come all the way into 60 180 but the bias is to the downside here for oilalright any questions about this analysis okayif not I would okay all right perfect Oh actually ifsomebody asked about pound New Zealand pound New Zealand let me just go backhere pound New Zealand if I have a chart down here and I'm missing that you knowhere it is okay pound New Zealand weekly here thisone looks like we have a pen in the bottom which means it could move higherhere so this is we came to the bottom of the support level into the bottom ofthis range here so we could move higher back into the top of the range this onehas been range bound as we can see for some time here so I'm looking for priceto move higher but it may not get all the way to the top of the range thisweek biases to the upside though 1.

97 9700 level to the to the upside soquestion about trade room subscription actually you know what I was trying tomake some changes to the trade room subscription so let's talk about that soI'm it's it's just taking I'm trying to do a culture shift within how I dobusiness but it takes a while to really shift the culture so I am a reopeningtrader on subscription but at the slightly I'm slight making slightchanges to it so the change that I'm making to the trade room trade room onelooking at the mindset is a big focus for me right now because mindset what iswhat kills a lot of traders and that's what it impacts me in a big way as wellso I'm trying to incorporate more of the tactical like practical things that wecan do to control the mindset and change especially when we are in the middle ofit how to change it so from trade room / subscription perspective we will yes sothe trade room subscription is open again what I'm gonna do is I am going toinclude the course that I offer learn to trade forex course I charge four hundredand ninety seven dollars for it I'm going to include that because a lot oftimes people will ask me questions that are a little bit basic for example howto draw support and resistance lines so I want to make sure that everybody whocomes into the trade room is on the same page so you learn the setups that I'mlooking for because sometimes it becomes difficult to answer those questions Iwelcome questions but sometimes if I don't know that you don't know I may notpoint out certain things in the trade room because all I'm doing is takingtrades right so I'm gonna include the subscription um I mean I'm gonna includethe course with it so that you know going in you know what I'm looking forin terms of setups and how I view the markets so generally if you actuallyjust buy the course it's 497 dollars a month if you want to go and get thesubscription for the trade room it will be at hundred and ninety seven dollars amonth but it will include the course so you're getting a lot more value for thatand anybody who's a current subscriber of the tradewe'll get that so so and so we'll have that included as well so if you want tocheck it out it's at sorry let me open a new tab here oh boyas you can see I am still under the weather a bit here and it is messing mymind okay so it's trading with Venus calm I am really heavy well alrighttrading with Venus the think effect calm that is not working let's give it a tryhere trading with Venus dot think if calm it's the same I think the samelinks will work or I'll make sure the same links work for the trade room herewe go so you can if you want to sign up it's hundred and ninety seven dollars amonth but like I said you will get the course with it if you want to sign upfor a yearly service and if you need a yearly or if you want to buy the yearlyservice is fifteen hundred dollars a year so you will you will save aboutfive hundred dollars so about 25 percent on the on the fees here but it doesinclude the five hundred dollar course and my pivot point indicator so all ofthat is a part of that as well and also if anyone is interested in I amlaunching a trade copier service and actually I'm gonna do I'm gonna do I'mdoing a beta test right now and for subscription for this trade copierservice it's basically the same thing as a trade room it's month two monthsubscription you can you will essentially get my trades automaticallyinto your account it's only for empty for at this point again I do not haveaccess to your funds you are going to manage your account on your own but mytrades will get copied to your to your account and for the trade copiersubscription at some point I'll be putting it at nine hundred ninety sevendollars a month will be the price but for now right now I've actually droppedthe price quite a bit because I'm looking for beta testers so it would betwo hundred ninety seven dollars a month and you basically just you'll get thetrades copy so this especially for people a lot of times I hear people thatthey can't trade the sessions that I'm trading so it's a trade London session acouple times a week and you are they are at work they're not able to manage thetrade alerts that I send out so for anybody who's in that position and wouldlike to do more of the forex trading you can join the trade not the trade roomsorry trade room is completely separate this is the trading trade copier serviceso it will be at two hundred ninety seven dollars a month and if you arelooking for a yearly subscription it would be two thousand nine hundredseventy dollars so you save about close to six hundred dollars with that anyquestions oh yeah how do you access it monthly if you want to be monthly youcan go to this link here bitly /v miss copy or monthly if you want the yearlybitly venus copier yearly again I will have links for not in subscription indescription below I am really out of it todayokay I will include the links in the description as well so if you areinterested in either one of those services whether you want to join thetrade room with the trade room you have access to me so you can ask yourquestions I make you do certain things now make you do I said highly recommendyou do certain things that will help you become a you know it will help youbecome a better trader and you will learn things on how to develop as atrader so if you're looking to become a professional trader and at some pointwant to be do this as a full-time business I highly recommendfollowing those recommendations that I suggest they come from a lot ofexperience but if you wanted just the trade copier this is another option Iwill include both the links any questions before we wrap it up here allright so let's call it a wrap you guys have a wonderful rest of the weekend andas always have a wonderful trading week and I will see you next time bye for now.

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Weekly Forex Forecast: June 4 - 8 2018 – Forex Trading Guide

Weekly Forex Forecast: June 4 - 8 2018

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