Weekly Forex Forecast: February 5 – 9 2018 – Forex Trading Guide

welcome everyone to our weekly forexmarket analysis call thank you for joining me on this lovely day herebefore we get going just a quick disclaimer trading is a risky businessso please be careful with your money I just want to reiterate that we don'twant to put on too big opposition size because markets can do anything theywant they can change direction at a moment's notice so please be carefulwhen you're trading and manage your risk all right so let's dive in now before weget going here or sorry before we get to our charts first thing we're gonna do isgo to our forex factory calendar so let's see what do we have for this weekhere first thing on Monday here February the fifth we actually want the wholeweek this week alright so coming up this week we have a services the PMI numberswe kind of started seeing those last week and we will continue with them thisweek last time the manufacturing PMI number came in negative for Britishpound and we saw a drop in the pound as a result of that so services PMI numberis actually even more important for the British Pound because it's a veryservice based economy so we'll have to keep a keep an eye on that we also havenon manufacturing PMI numbers for the US PM eyes are a leading indicator theylead to retail sales and eventually the GDP number so these are important andthen we have present ECB President Draghi speaking now ECB we have seensome kind of mixed comments from ECB first they came out and said thatthey're going to continue on with expansionary monetary policy and thenthere was a comment tossed in there that said that they are going to it's time tocut back on their asset purchase program so we need to keep an eye on thisbecause as a result of that comment we saw euroquite a bit so we need to keep this in mind anytime there is a central bankerspeaking especially right now because monetary policies are changing it willhave an impact on the market so make sure we keep an eye on this so this is athis is on Monday here and then we also have another central bank here forAustralia Australia over the last little while they haven't really change theinterest rate even though Canada has done that so Canada Australia NewZealand they're all commodity currencies and they tend to sort of do things theytend to be aligned so Canada has done multiple interest rate hikes butAustralia and New Zealand haven't and Australia has essentially said thateconomy they're concerned about the economy the forecast of the economy soif the commentary is the same it stays the same from the central bankso RBA doesn't is not very bullish on the economy their comments are not verybullish then we could see see Australian dollar drop so keep that in mindit's the commentary right now that's driving the market I'm not reallylooking at an interest rate hike for that but it will be the comments thatcome out of it that will make the difference so we'll have to keep an eyeon that and then on Tuesday here trade balance numbers for Canada andemployments numbers for New Zealand so those will be the two main things forTuesday coming into Wednesday here we have FOMC member Dudley speaking so lastweek we had FOMC and FOMC was actually bullish they were it was good but it wasyellen's last FOMC meeting so we're gonna see a leadership change in thefact which will make which will have an impact so going forward we'll we'll kindof see how that goes um last time just kind of a little bit of a commentaryhere on what happened with the FOMC FOMC was hawkish and yet we could not see wedid not see the US dollar go up but when the data came out non-farm payroll cameout on Friday and that was positive finally gave the US dollar some supportso that's that was our last week the sentiment was very very negative againstthe US dollar and even a positive Fed statement did not lift it so with thepositive numbers jobs number coming out that had an impact so we'll see how howthe US dollar does this week hopefully that will continue and u.


dollar willget some support but then we have another central bank here so this weekis full of central bankers we have a Reserve Bank of New Zealand here theyare not looking to raise interest rates here as well but again we'll have to seewhat they have to say about their economy or the prospects of the economyand that will make a difference so if they are bullish on their economy thecommentary will be positive and as a result these these pairs could get apositive lift however one thing that we do have to keep in mind with thewidespread US dollar weakness everything else has gone up against the US dollarso at this point other countries have to be getting worried about the strength intheir currency and one of the reason a US dollar ever since President Trump hasbeen in his office we have seen the u.


dollar drop because he has been he'sbeen dovish on the dollar in the sense he wants a weaker dollar in order tosupport exports because when he have a weaker currency it's easier for othercountries to buy buy your stuff right so as a result of that US has followed thisweaker US dollar sort of rhetoric so every a lot of comments from from thepresident have been about a weaker US dollar and as a result we have had aweaker US dollar in spite of the many interest rate hikes that have happenedin the US so now there were you know China was sort of making some ore out ofthe Chinese market we saw some comments about or concerns about the strength ofthe Chinese yuan and that could kind of spread to other countries as well so theso the central banks or you know other officials of the other countries maystart making that could weaken other currencies andthis is just like I don't know when those comments will happen or how theywill phrase them but this is just generally what tends to happen once wesee the US dollar weakened so much other countries start getting concerned aboutit especially China because China is such a big export partner with the u.


They sell a lot of stuff to the US and if Chinese yuan is getting veryexpensive it becomes difficult for the US consumers to buy those buy thoseproducts so just keep that in mind as we are as we kind of go through our tradinghere okay so after that on Thursday we have even more central bankers so thisweek expect a lot of volatility based on these comments here Thursday we haveBank of England and we also have NPC Bank Rate votes they're not expected tochange at this point and we're supposed to see the monetary policy summary andthe back right here so same thing commentary will have an impact BritishPound has been very very strong lately the data has most of the data has comeout positive some of it hasn't but for the most part it has been positive soright now because there are brexit concerns they may not raise rates atthis point but again the commentary any commentary that is even you knowslightly hawkish will drive this pair up so keep that in mind and then we haveour be a monetary policy statement for Australiaso overall the whole week is around the central bankers so we have multiplecentral bankers speaking so just be careful this week and then Friday isrelatively quiet with manufacturing production for the British Pound andemployment numbers for Canada so overall we have we have a full week with centralbankers so let's move on to the charts right now let's we'll start off with with oureuro US dollar here so we have seen many weeks of positive USS or a euro dollarhere and now we have finally we're seeing that momentum is not as strong sobased on the daily here we saw this a little bit of a pullback but overall theentire week we saw price trade in biddeford range for the Euro so rightnow this is a range bound move and I'm gonna treat it as such so in this caseoverall though bias is still to the upside but we may be losing momentumhere so at this point we are range bound here so I'm gonna follow a range boundstrategy for this one so I'm looking for price to go into once the price goesinto the high here I'm looking for for a price to drop from there until such timethat it breaks out to the other side I'm not looking for taking the breakout thetrade that I will be looking for will be a test of the high and then showed fromthere so that would be that and if price comes into the bottom here I am lookingfor it to bounce off like it did this week here so that would be essentiallythe trade plan looking to sell at the top and buy at the bottom so I'm justlooking for price to go sideways here until such time there's enough momentumeither from the US dollar side or the Euro for it to break out of the range sofor euro for this week's bias it will be just sideways the range bound for euroUS dollar pound here we are seeing a similar situation as well but right nowwe are seeing a bounce off of the high so this range that the price traded infor British Pound last week we have seen a drop here so in this case I will lookfor price to drop further and I'm looking for something like thisbasically price pulls back and then drop so I'm looking for price to move towardsthe bottom of this range that it has traded in over the last weekso my bias is to the downside here we may get a pullback before it dropped sointo this 142 area so let me just bring my class here so into 142 36 ish areapull back into that and then a draw up towards the bottom of this range here sothe target here would be one point thirty nine ninety two is about 140 willbe the target to the downside so looking for price to pull back in the pounddollar okay so that's the pound let's take a look at Ozzie year Ozzie hasactually seen a drops of first week that we have seen price bounced off and wetalked about this this was we were at a major resistance level here and then nowwe have seen a price drop so I'm looking for price to drop further so we couldsee a pullback either into this 80 30 ish area or lower into this 79-65 sobasically my bias is to the downside in this one and the target would be 77 80level which is this previous afford and resistance area so the type of move thatwe could expect could be one of these price pulls back and then drops furtherwe do have our be a statement so that will have an impact on this if it isbullish then we could see price go back to its the high but based on technicalshere this this is a very very bearish candle and a very solid clothes forAussie so looking for price to drop further target would be 77 80 level forAussie here New Zealand dollar we are finally we have seen a drop here againwe were into this resistance area over here where price had turned multipletimes here is only once where price was able to go higher but price did turnhere so we have a nice bearish pinbar now New Zealand dollar also has aCentral Bank announcement so Reserve Bank of New Zealand is supposed to makea statement on their monetary policy so that could have an impact but overallbased on technicals we are looking for price to drop herehere so we have a bearish pinbar but we also have this tweezer top pattern so asa result I'm looking for price to drop and my target would be 70 135 so lookingfor this area to be tested once again so 70 135 biases to the downside for NewZealand dollar dollar cat here this has jumped up quite a bit on Friday there sowe talked about this previous level that a price was sort of staying within wehave finally bounced off of this or maybe I talked about that on the dailyI'm sorry for surprise balanced off of this so this is a bullish candle so weare back into this rank range again so I'm looking for Christ to go back upagain so right now we have finally seen some US dollar weakness and we have seenthese big drops are you know are we have seen sorry not a big drop but actuallybig moves up and everything so when we have such a prolonged moves over severalperiods or several weekly periods we do need to or we do normally see pull backsso that's what I'm expecting this week we have had a continuous move one-sidedmove against the US dollar in pretty much everything so this may be time forprice to pull back and we may see some profit taking there's a lot of centralbanks so expect so I'm expecting US dollar to get some some relief from thecontinuous selling that we have seen it seen it in itso this week I'm looking for dollar cad to move up and another thing aboutdollar cad even though canada raised rates banco can they raise rates a lotof that is already priced in at this point so we could see price bounce offof here to the upside so my target is one point 2600 for dollar cad euro swissfranc here we have a very neutral candle close so right now I'm looking for priceto show us the direction not a very clear signal interms of you know the the your Swiss franc itself so this could this willlikely be driven by the moves in Euro so we need to see how that plays out butbased on the daily as we can see price hasn't really done a whole lot over thelast week it just came down and it's just stuck in this range so there are acouple of scenarios that we could look at from this perspective so we have tobasically look for a break to either side so right now it is range bound andI am just looking for a range bound move which is this basically sell at the highbuy at the bottom right so those are the two moves I'll be looking for until suchtime that price breaks out of this range so right now it looks like it'sconsolidating here oops so it's consolidating in this range andif your drops further we could see one of these moves to the downside right sowe have seen a drop here and looking for basically a flower formation and acontinuation to the downside that will be my first scenario that I'd be lookingfor but right now I'm just gonna treat it as a range bound we need to see aclear break here retest and then see an up we'll look for an opportunity to sellbut until such time I am just gonna treat this as a range bound so it's notclear so basically looking to sell at one point one six 36 area at the top andlooking for price to drop towards the bottom of the range at 1.

15 40 once itbreaks or if it breaks then and only then would I be looking for selling thisbut until such time it is range bound here is this okay so this one here is abetter signal so last week we had a weekly very nice bearish weekly close sowe were looking for a drop and we got this drop so that's a bearish signalthere as well and then we have so looking for a further basically move tothe downside so in this case I'm looking for one point 29 80 level and beforethat I'd be looking for a bit of a pullback here so like that and thenlooking for a drop so 1.

29 80 would be my target to thedownside so pound Swiss franc looks weak dollar Swiss franc we have seen this onetake quite a hit and let's take a look here so finally this is the first weekthat we actually have seen a bullish candle so this is a bullish engulfingcandles for this one here we could see if the US strength continues we arelooking for price to move up or we could see price move up but on the weeklybasis this is still range bound we saw the price come and hit the bottom herelike we were expecting last week but there it has found stuff bounce off ofthat bottom there so this is range bound as well so this is the just on Fridayreally that we started seeing some turnaround in the market so we'll haveto see if this continues and it is a lot of it is driven by driven by US dollarweakness and as a result of that we are seeing this move so for this one lookingfor price to be range bound and we have to see as long as price stays above thebottom here 0.

92 60 level then we are looking for price to move up higher fromthere but for now it is arranged bound ends looking for price to just basicallygo back and forth within that range alright so let's go with dollar yen here so dollar yensorry pound and pound e'en is pushing up but we are into resistance here it'sholding this trendline and if has bounced off of this trendline itlast week we were looking for price to drop but it did drop but then it gotcaught on the trend line and has pushed up since thenso the weekly close here is bullish but we haven't broken the high yet so wehaven't broken the previous week's high and it is sitting right into the high atthis time from a daily perspective if we have a pin bar so we would be lookingfor a drop on the daily but from a weekly perspective it is into the top ofthis range so because of that we could so we'll have to see how this one goesso with where the price is sitting if it doesn't break above the high here 1506.

80 if it doesn't break the high then we'relooking for the price to pull back and back into this trendline and looking fora similar move kind of like the last week here looking for price to go intodraw from the high and come and hit the hit the bottom here once again so thelevel that we are looking at my target would be 150 2.

80 so my base casescenario is to the downside basically looking for price to drop back into 150280 level however it is very important if the price breaks above this one thenit will kind of drive up to this next level which is 160 point 50 level so I'mgoing to look for a reaction at 150 680 if the price holds below 150 680 I'mlooking for a drop back into the trendline and that will be my base casescenario for this one here okay and then we have euro yen euro yen has been verybullish so we have finally broken above the high here but we are into majorresistance so for this one the bias is bullish and in terms of the move so thisis where we are currently so we are into thisPorter resistance area and it is looking very bullish so the next one would be139 level and in this case looking for basically price to do this and then moveover 130 900 will be our target to the upside there and looking for a bit of apullback and then a further move to the upside so this looks more bullish thanCounty and does that's a very solid clothes for the weekly candle aussie yenhere that has been bearish so we had a bearish move last week and we werelooking for a drop so we got that drop now I'm looking for price to move backlower here so that's a bearish bearish candle close so looking for price todrop into this 85 80 level or even into 85 50 level to the downside so lookingfor price to drop here okay so alright so the next one here is dollar yen sodollar yen first foot time we've actually seen dollar strength here sothis one dollar yen looks bullish it looks like we may get a pullbackand the target here would be 111 point 50 level to the up sites was justlooking for price to go into this the previous drop that we had to looking forprice to move up into this area so that's dollar yen cadion based on ourweekly here we see a rejection twice here and now I would be looking for abreak to the downside so we have to see the price break below 8800 and once itdoes I'd be looking for price to drop into this 86 60 level that will be thenext one to the downside and then euro CAD here that's not my favorite chartlet me pull up a new one where are wepound cat and there is your cat here we go all right so your cat your cat islooking white bullish okay so you look at Polly sure so we are above thisprevious support resistance area price has broken up to the upside this lookskind of like the yen one where we have seen a solid candle close to the upsideso for this one the next target would be into this one point 5600 level and priorto that though we could see a pullback sort of like this and then a move to theupside so one point 5600 would be my target to the upside prices in this itis maintaining this uptrend and now we have actually seen the price break abovethe previous highs here so that's a very solid bullish candle close so the biasis to the upside for this and especially if the commodity currencies turn aroundwe are likely to see this continue so while we're looking at now let's take aquick look at the oil here oil we have seen a pullback in oil but it's stillholding above this level so we've seen a pullback and now it's holding about soin this case it's sort of sideways at the moment let's take a look at thedaily it's as we can see daily is a bit sideways here we arethat's our range prices staying like that so at this point we could see theprice so we'll have to again trade is like a range bound so right now it has aslight bias to the upside oops okay I think my chart was justupdating here let's try that okay so that's where we are so let's try thisguy so bye so here from the debut perspective we've seen a drop andwe could see price come back down so we could see the price do one of these sosorry pull back a little bit higher there drop so sixty three point ten willbe the first one looking for price to drop slightly here but from the weeklyperspective so yeah we are seeing a pullback so I'm looking for a pullbackback into this 6310 area and this is where so right now it's range bound forthe last three weeks it's stayed in this range right so we have to look for abreak to either side and that will determine where the next move will be sofor now I'm looking for price to drop towards the 6310 area and looking for itto come test this and if the price stays above them looking for price will goback to at the top of the range but if it breaks down then then we could comeback into this sixty point seventy two this sixty level here so that's our oilif oil if oil drops Eurocard will actually go up because if oil drops thencanadian dollar will drop as well so euro CAD will go up so right now they'realigned because we are seeing a pullback in in oil we are seeing the dollar cadgo up and euro can't go up right so they are currently aligned and if it dropsfurther than euro CAD is likely to go up further dollar cad is likely to gofurther pound cat is likely to go up further so any of those crosses will goup because a Canadian dollar will drop medium dollar will be weaker as a resultof oil dropping unless of course US dollar completelygoes off track again but that's that so let's take a look at gold here as wellgold has been very bullish came into this previous resistance level hasdropped from there so that's the that's a bearish close for the week here so Iam looking for Christ to draw further so this is again aligned with the USdollars so this is the first first week in our first time in several weeks thatwe have really seen some strength from the US dollar and when the US dollarstrengthens gold goes in the opposite direction so we had seen gold go up forseveral weeks because US dollar has been really taking a big hit and now that youused all is turning around gold will go in the opposite direction so this is abearish candle closer as a result looking for price to drop further intothis 1297 60 area so that will be the bias for it but one thing to do keep inmind is that prices stayed above 113 2016 sorry 13 26.

72 level here and wehave to see a break of this level right because it it hasn't broken in severalweeks so that would be the first criteria and once that level breaks thenwe are looking for a drop into 1297 point 61 alright so anything else anyother questions yes so just a quick note about that I am starting a channel sorrynow starting a challenge challenge this week and that is the turning prochallenge I am just in the midst of editing the podcast so I would likelyrelease that today what you want to do for that one is if you want to join mein the challenge so basically the turning pro challenge I had floated thisidea a few weeks ago back in before the holidays that if we trade likeregardless of the size of our account if we do what professional traders do so ifwe emulate their behaviors we can emulate their results as well so we'renot looking for a million dollars out of a small account but we are looking forvery solid returns on our account but that will take the it will take usemulating the behaviors of the professional traders so I'm gonnaofficially launched the challenge this week I have put in money into the intothe trading account to $3,500 and this week I am going to release the podcasthopefully today where basically you can follow along with me so I will sharesome worksheets with you so since we're talking about it let me just pull up thestuff here so this is where you want to go so if you want to sign up you can goto so I have a bunch of spreadsheet so let me do a quick I wasn't planning onthis but let me do a quick review of what's going on with the turning pro Ihave these templates for market analysis trade log and I have other spreadsheetswe are going to keep a scorecard I will explain more of that in the in thepodcast so keep an eye out on the YouTube channel so these are theprojections so basically I'm looking for $3500 account that I'm gonna start withevery week on Friday I will share my results in with everyone so on Fridaysyou'll see your and you'll see a video from me where I will share my results Ihaven't quite decided if I want to do that as a live webinar or ask just as avideo I'll see which one works out for my time and everything else but $3500that among that I'm gonna start with the returns that we're looking for are veryambitious about eleven hundred percent return for the year and for after oneyear I'm looking at about thirty eight thousand dollars to hit that mark but itwill take some you know discipline and we're gonna start with three mini Lotsbecause the count size is only thirty five hundred dollars so start with threemini Lots the idea is just scaling up that scaling up the on size not reallytaking crazy months of risk so scaling up on size and as that count size growsour profits are going to add up as well so we don't actually get to a fullstandard law till the count is at twenty thousand dollars but for now we'relooking for weekly profit of only $300 and a weekly picgoal will be hundred hundred pips so modest in terms of weekly and dailygoals but quite ambitious in terms of overall goals so the idea is that wefollow the discipline and practices of professional traders and we are lookingfor some really good returns as well so in terms of the worksheets like I said Isaid we will keep score of our account as well as we will do a scorecard of ouractions so did we do the actions and the three main actions I'm looking for ispreparation execution and review and we are going toscore up sales daily on that so that's how we are going to do that and sothat's that I will if you want to download the spreadsheets for this onethe spreadsheets can be found or the worksheets can be found at trading withVenus comp forward slash turn pro so you will get all the all the differentworksheets and stuff like that I have so you can follow along with me I you knowI highly recommend you do the work to get the results again not looking totake crazy amount of risk I'm the idea is to make our money lastif we take huge lock size if you take a lot of risk if we have too many tradeson that's a surefire way to blow up our account and we're not looking for thatfor us to stay in business we have to have money to trade and we have to makeour account last so that's the whole challenge again watch out for thepodcast where I will explain in greater details as to how I'm gonna go about itand every week we'll do a review how did the you know how are we doing in termsof our projection versus actual and what our next steps will be will we need tomake alignments where we need to change that type of stuff so the idea is we'llcontinue this for for a year and and see if we can get these results so this isthe place to go to to sign for this so this week if you sign up youwill also get the weekly review whether I do a webinar then you'll get the linkto the webinar if I do a video you will receive the video in the email so if youcan see you can subscribe here so you'll get all the worksheets and you will getall the follow-ups for this challenge all right any other questionsso ask well the question is why wait till $20,000 us because I like to managethe risk it's you can go to stand a lot at week you know if we go to stand a lotright now at $3,500 it will blow up the account and this is just based onexperience and my personal experience on everybody else's experience not lookingto hit hit the home runs here just slow and steady one run here you know anotherone there and so just looking for small gains but steady gains the idea is thenwe can turn this into a full-time living that's what I'm looking to get out ofthis for people have asked me one question that I get asked over and overagain is how do I make this into my career and that's what we are going toaddress here so in my other when I first floated this idea I had a given given anexample of a racecar driver right so as a racecar driver if you give a brand newdriver you know a full-blown Indy 500 car that person is going to get killedright that you just don't do that we start with a small the small car it hasto fit and we have to take smaller risks and that's why we're not gonna blow upthat count idea is to take smaller risk and stay on track it's it will takediscipline and it will take following the rules and that's exactly what we'regonna do and it's alright you just wait for a little bit and I just need tobasically tie up a few loose ends in the back end there just need to need to kindof do our connect to the dots there and also well pleaseif you want to advertise your services please do so on your platform this isjust bad form to advertise your stuff on other people's time so please do so thaton your channel alright so in terms of anybody wants to subscribe to thetrading room yes trading room will be part of the channel just a differencethere is with the regular channel I'm I'm giving you the tools to do itin the trade room you will actually see my trade that I'm taking in the livemarket so I basically share when I'm entering the trade when I'm exiting thetrade what my stop and what my profit targets are that type of stuff so I'mactually basically going to share all of that like I normally do in the trailerbut the trailer um is part of the challenge as well that's the onlydifference alright so we'll call it a wrap for nowanything else before we finish up here I think I've answered all the questionsall right you guys have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week I willI will see you next time then bye for now.

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Weekly Forex Forecast: February 5 - 9 2018 - Forex Trading Guide

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