Weekly Forex Forecast: April 30 – May 4 2018 – Forex Trading Guide

welcome to our weekly forex marketanalysis cult and this is in preparation for trading from April 30th to May for2018 just a quick disclaimer before we get started this is for educationalpurposes only trading is a risky business so please be careful with yourmoney all right so we'll start off by taking alook at our calendar here as usual we'll start we'll take a look at the entireweek and let's see what's going on holiday to start the week up here inJapan in China and we have a PMI numbers coming out for China so keep that inmind because they will have an impact on ourNew Zealand and Australian dollars they generally tend to and for New Zealandhere we have a business confidence number coming up it was negative thelast time so if it comes up negative again that would be bad for New ZealandDollars or we could see a drop in New Zealand US dollar there and then we alsohave for Australia we have the Reserve Bank of Australia or governor nowspeaking so the central banks are becoming more important and what we wantto pay attention to there are their comments in regards to the economy so ifthey if they talk about any comment or they mentioned something that where itshows that they're not so confident about the economy that would be negativefor for the currency so Australian dollar per drop based on any suchcomments that can be taken as negative for the or sorry for the country thereso for the economy so keep that in mind and then coming upon so not a whole lot of other stuff there is some other data Chicago PMIwill be important here but the important data here is the rate statement so lastweek we had ECB and we saw how based on the comments alone so they didn't changeanything but based on the comments are the we saw a euro dollar to grow a lotso this is why monetary policy in central bank's right now are becomingvery important so just keep that in mind because if the Reserve Bank of Australiatalks about our says anything negative on the economy or expresses concernsaround political geopolitical situation or aroundand things like that that would be negative here so negative fourand afford the whatchamacallit it will be negative for Australian dollar hereI'm sorry just give me a one moment here you okay so moving on here and we have hereEuropean holiday on Tuesday and then we have manufacturing PMI numbers for forBritish pound here so we saw negative data come out of the UK so last fewnumbers have been a little bit more to the negative side which are negativeimpacts on especially on Thursday there we have negative we saw negative numbersfor pound for the U for UK and that had negative impact so if we see moresimilar numbers where numbers are droppingwe could see negative further negative impact on British pound their GDPnumbers here for Canada are important so keep that in mind is M manufacturingnumbers are very important as well our PMI numbers they are very important aswell and then we have Bank of Canada governorpull-off speaking he has spoken in the past as well and I think everybody kindof knows where the where his stance is where the Bank of Canada stands so if weget anything new added that will have an impact but otherwise I think everythingis priced in for Canadian dollar New Zealand dollar employment numbers alwayshave an impact and then we have construction PMI numbers for Britishpound again these PMI numbers their leading indicators for retail sales sothey do tend to have an impact when they come out so now we are coming into avery important thing here so we have ADP non-farm numbers and then very veryimportant here looking at we have FOMC this week so I fluency always just likeECB had a big impact FOMC generally tends to have big impact here as wellagain the interest rate is not expected to change here generally they dointerest rate hikes when there is there's a conference schedule so there'sno interest rate hike schedule or markets not expecting here but just likea CV it will be the tone of the the Fed statement that will drive the market soI would suggest being very careful with generally it's a market moving activityhere news items be mindful of that trade balance numbers for Australia again itwill be very important because Australia is a big export economy so trade balancenumbers will be important and then we have services PMI numbers again veryimportant for for British pound here because the UK is a service basedeconomy so if service numbers are not good that will have a negative impactand then again trade balance numbers here for Canada and Canada we havethere's a knifeless getting renegotiated right now and so there's a lot of tradeuncertainty which the Bank of Canada had mentioned as well so if the tradebalance numbers are negative here for Canada that will have a negative impacton Canadian dollars or dollar cad and any of the Canadian dollar crosses willbe impacted by that if right now trade is is it's very important because ofeverything that's going on around it big tariffs and things like that so we'llhave to pay attention to this number non-manufacturing PMI numbers again forus it will be important they also have Swiss National Bank chairman Jordanspeaking if their trading is Swiss franc you want to keep an eye on that and thenwe have monetary policy statement for Australia so we have a bunch of thesecentral bank events so be very mindful of that because generally they aremarket moving they will have an impact on that particular currency so hereAustralian dollar will be impacted and then on Friday we have non-farm payrollagain it's usually is a market moving events it's really trading the US dollaron Friday here just be mindful of that because it will move the market so abunch of important news coming out this week so just be careful with all ofthose now let's move on to our charts here we'll start off by taking a look ateuro US dollar a weekly chart so we have this our little trendline to thedownside last week we had a pin bar and saw a drop based on that we were lookingfor that drop so we did get that now we are into this into this lower levelshere's the price has dropped and post ECB we saw a big drop so let's see sowhat can we expect here now we are into the support resistance level here sothat's why we and we did have pull backs on a Friday there based on the weeklycount of close here this looks a bearish so I'm looking for price but price couldpull back so do do keep that in mind so that's the kind of move I would expectand then further down like that so that's what I am looking for biases tothe downside based on the big large the weekly counter close bearish candleclose however because we have large candle do expect pull backs and thenfurther drop so the biases to the downside for your dollar first targetwill be 120 50 second would be one point so nineteen fifty one point when I mightzero some bottom of this candle here so I will look for a pullback and then forthe continuation to the downside so bearish there and then pound has ourpound dropped a lot based on those numbers that we just talked about withthis one this is a bearish as well we have a large bearish candle close hereso in this case we could get rid of some of these lines okay so last week we hadtalked about this double top we had a bearish engulfing candle close on theweekly so we were looking for a drop and here is the drop so now we have finallycrossed this to the downside we are coming into support right here so that'ssomething to keep in mind we are if you take a look at the overall picture forthe last few months there we have just been in this range so we are in a rangebound market we are at the bottom of the range now for the British Pound so whatwe need to see here is the biases to the downsideI would be careful of this support at 1.

30 700 level because of what couldhappen is being arranged bottom market we could just get one of these moves andthat's what we have to be mindful up it could just bounce off at the bottom ofthe upper range so for now I am looking for price to drop and buts with cautionso I'll just put that in there the bias will be to the downside and next targetfor be a 130 for 30 level which is the bottom of this pin here so that will bethe bias but I would be careful of the bottom of the range there because if youdon't see a breakout to the downside this could go back up towards the middleof the range just like it did here so we had a nice weekly kind of close and thenit pushed up all the way to the top of the range now we're at the bottom and itcould do the same so that's the cautionary part but based on theirweekly close looking for price to drop further Aussie dollar here Aussie dollarwe have seen a couple of weeks of last week we were looking for a drop so nowwe have that drop we are almost into support right here and then furtherwould look for price to drop further here so we do have weekly counter closeto the downside so it is bearish but see like with this one we had a weekly closeand then priced pushed up so we have seen this drop for several weeks now sowe put the price sling up further so we could get one of those and then a dropall the way into 7500 and then if price breaks the downside then I would belooking for a further move to the downside so Aussie dollar is bearish butbecause we have had this big drop in all the dollar crosses look for pullbacksnow and a good level for pullbacks would be is 0.

76 50 level so this is where wecould see some good opportunity to trade if it stays little diss level lookingfor a drop and further drop overall bias is to the downside for Aussie dollarand then we have a New Zealand dollar here as well so we saw a nice drop againwe had a bearish engulfing counter close previous week and we were looking for adrop which we got so now the fact they have seen this big drop same thing as Imentioned with Aussie here as well we could see price pull back kind oflike that and so I would be looking at 0.

71 50 level and then looking for priceto drop further target here would be 69 50 and if price just continued lowersecond target will be the base of this candle here which is our support levelhere at 6800 zero point six eight zero zero so those are the two targets butthis is the target I'm looking for as 0.

69 50 so price to pull up and thenbreak down into six 950 so that's the target biases to the downside dark athas been interesting it's been trading in this a little arranged for the lastfew days and this is where we are so overall candle close has been a bullishbut we are into resistance here so this is the level so if we go down to thedaily chart this is where price has been in stock for the last several daysit hasn't been able to break this resistance level which is a solidresistance level so with this one we have to be cautious is if it doesn'tbreak this resistance then we could see the price come down and at this pointthough based on the weekly I would say bullish but I would be looking for priceto turn here so the big caveat here is if the price closes above 2900 then I ambullish and I'm looking for move towards 130 120 level backing to the highs herebut if the price does not break this then we could get a head and shoulderstype of formation and I will be looking for this type of a move to the downsideand the target would be 1.

27 50 level as the first target so this is a very verycritical to see where the price goes to a hold up up on 2900 and theit would be 130 120 I hold below 120 900 we're looking at a 120 750 as the firsttarget and potentially into 125 20 level here to the downside so this one we haveto because we are into heavy resistance we have to play it based on what themarket shows us Euro Pound here this one was interesting because we saw the bigdrop based on first ECB and then we saw a big push up based on other numbersfrom from GDP sorry numbers from the pound and now we have a bullish candleclose here bullish pin bar again we are into some resistance here but the biasis bullish so I would be looking for price to go higher and the target wouldbe 0.

89 50 level to the upsides are looking for price to go back again biasis bullish for euro pound pound cat here cat monster pumpkin as well pound catlooking bearish here alright so we have closed below this resistance level herewhich is which is good so biases bearish looking for one 7350 level back into thesupport level so that is bearish so low nice and simple okay so yeah looking fora price to drop further into 170 350 level price is very bearish for poundcat euro cat here we have bearish candle close I like this candle it hasn't beenable to break the high here we were into resistance but hasn't been able to breakthat so first target would be a 1.

54 80 level and below that looking at 1.

53 50level or let's say 50 80 level to the downside so bias for Euro cab is bearishand looking to drop further pound Ozzy here hugedrop now we have this inefficient move so it could get filled so be mindful ofthat but I do like the bearish candle here so for a number of weeks we haven'tbeen able to break the high which is really good because it provides aopportunity to potentially short this and I like the bearish pinbar here sothis is this is a nice one but again because we have had a huge drop hereanytime we have such large moves generally there are pull back so justjust keep that in mind which means the move that we are looking for would besomething like this it could go all the way to the top but it may not becauseit's already its challenge that that will so many times so I would look forpull back into 1.

82 let's see let's go to the daily here so this level here1.

82 92 is about 80 300 level that the vehicle level for a pullback to see thispin right on the other side that's the so I'm going to leave this pullbacklevel in here so we could see on the beast and then a further drop now dokeep in mind we are coming into the cattle close right into support whichmeans a pullback is something to to look for so we could get that go back sobiases to the downside and I'm looking for price to drop further target wouldbe one point 80 50 level which is back into it is important support andresistance level so that is um actually could come all the way into one pointeight zero zero so 180 is the target here and biases bearish looking forpullback and then a drop ah see here I like it's right euro OzzyI like this one here as well so what we have here is okay so what we have hereis a doji it's a sort of a pin bar gravestone doji is what the technicalterm for this one is but it is a sort of a pin bar so looking for price to dropthe main thing here we are seeing is a rejection of the high so price testedthe high and then rejected it so dropped further I'm looking for price to golower here as well 1.

57 80 will be the target to thedownside so biases bearish for that pound NewZealand here as well bearish bias we have seen a rejection ofthis level so let me get rid of some of these okay so this pin bar shows a rejectionhere but there is bullishness here as well so it could go back up and testthis pin on the side and then dropped from there so bias bias is to thedownside and looking for one point to the 9150 level here to the downsideso bearish bias four-pound New Zealand as well but this is because of thatgreen I would look for a prices pull back pull back up first and then dropeuro New Zealand here this one this one has more bullishness in it than theother one so I will look for a retest of the highs it could go all the way to thetop here and then we'll have to see how it plays out at the top here but I'mlooking for a price to go and test the high and then potentially drop fromthere but if it crosses to the other side we still have that next high thatit could be a good target so this one this bullish last week so we got themove to the upside but now we are into resistance and there is this pin on topwhich means we could see a rejection here so I would look for some sort of adouble top type of formation see if it drops otherwise if it breaks out thenwe're looking for another move to the upside and target would be a 170 480inductance but so have to just watch that resistance level let's go on to theyen crosses now we had a big drop here in pound cannon so we are looking for sowe have a nice bearish pinbar so last week we had the railroad tracksthe reversal pattern and now we have a pin bar so this one I'm looking forprice to drop further and the target here would be 148 50 will be the firsttarget and then a 148 point zu 0 will be the second target to the downside sopound yen weekly is bearish euro yen here lookingfor a drop as well with this one so we had a nice so we have in this one aswell we have that gravestone doji which is again a little pin bar and now thatthis one we do have the support level right here and so biases to the downside13150 will be the first target and if price continues lower we're looking for129 80 is the second target but I do like the rejection on this and lookingfor it to drop so euro yen is bearish now dollar yen here durian is looking abullish here because US dollar has been quite bullish as a result of that dollaryen has moved up so with this one because it's it's bullish candle close Iam looking for price to move further and target here so let's just get rid ofabout 110 point 40 level or even 50 levels of back into this high will bethe target to the upside here again because they've have a nice big candlehere and a bit of a pullback just like this one pull back and then further moveto the upside so dollar yen is looking bullish Aussie and here this one Ididn't do a whole lot it got stuck at this daily level here see how price isjust stuck here so with this one we'll have to see a drop bias still remains tothe downside because previous candle is bearish but this is completely neutralfor this week so we'll just have to see if it breaks below this 8250 level ornot so looking at the daily chart is where we will will be able to see if itpulls to the downside or not overall bias still stays to the downside howeverit's not completely bearish till it breaks that levelKanyon here hasn't really done a whole lot we had a draw because it wasn't afully engulfing candle that's why there was still thatfoolishness because this still bullish this week it's bullish candle closehasn't broken the high so this is sideways at the moment and because it'srange-bound I'm looking for price to go up into 8580 level to looking at the daily as we can see it's been range bound withinthis so we'll just have to take a look we'll have to see which way this breaksfor it to turn bearish we have to see a drop below 80 for 30 level here and thena continuation to the downside so this is sideways for now okay going to let'stake a look at gold and we might as well cover oil while we are added gold here Gold here is looking a bearish and Iwill look for price to go back into the bottom here 13:30 no 425 level so thisis range bound for the last let's see how many months four monthsit's been arranged bound so it hasn't been able to break the high and we havea monthly sort of a bearish looking candle hereso with this week looking for price to drop into this 1304 point twenty fivelevel and and that's it so it's basically range found looking for tomove towards the bottom of the range oil herewhat's oil doing oil is neutral so we have pins on both side neutral right nowso we'll have to see which way this one goes as well and wherever oil goesdollar cad will be impacted as well so loop if we saw price go up here andCanadian dollar benefited as a result of that and now it's neutral so this couldgo either way so when we have a neutral kind of close it just means we just haveto wait and see which way this one's going to go and both of these optionsare available for sixty-nine fifty or sixty six point zero zero here so bothof these will be available alright so that's it for meany questions or comments or anything to add before we wrap it up oh just one more thing to mention as Ihave mentioned in previously I'm doing a bit of a change in my service offeringsand stuff so I'm going to continue the Forex course or discontinue the Forexcourse that I offer and I'm going I'll be sending out an email with so thisweek after this week I'm going to revamp that course so for this week I will bedropping the price by $100 so you'll save about 25% on that and before itgets discontinues if you want to take a course it's a good time to purchase itso I will be so certain today it's not ready but as of tomorrowit'll have the link with with $100 drop in drop in price so if you're interestedyou can do that I'm Tom I don't do any elbow based trading it's just purely -purely manual ok perfect so that's it for now if you guys want to join me I'mdoing a lot of back testing as well on the on the strategy so if you want tojoin me you can go to my facebook page that I have let me just pull that up theFacebook group I have a free Facebook that I have created so I would suggesttaking a look at that if you are interested in joining me for differentso I have four days a week I do like back testings if you want to join meplease feel free to go to trading Venus is the name of the Facebook groupalright so that's it for now you guys have a wonderful rest of the weekend andI will see you again next week bye for now you.

Source: Youtube

Weekly Forex Forecast: April 30 - May 4 2018 - Forex Trading Guide

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