Earnings may surprise the stock market – Watch Out!

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/07/earnings-may-surprise-the-stock-market-watch-out/

You can see in the graph, below, that we think the present cost top may actually be near the maximum point attained over another 30+ times.  We consider earnings data will alter the dynamics of cost action and increase volatility over the subsequent 2-3 weeks.  Establishing a sideways Pennant price formation as the worldwide markets and investors digest this new economic data.  In the end, a price breakdown is probably (a cost revaluation event) which will allow for continued upside price increase later on.
Chris Vermeulen

Technical Traders Ltd..

Be prepared.  The data may result in a very big rise in volatility during the subsequent 10~15+ days and this may result in a really dramatic price correction setting up as we have suggested.  Discover how our search team is able to help you stay ahead of these larger market moves and find amazing trading opportunities because these huge moves occur.

Early this week, July 15 through July 19, a total of 173 firms will be reporting earnings — including a number of very large companies such as Bank Of America (BAC), Alcoa (AA), US Bancorp (USB), IBM, Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), E-Bay (EBAY), Netflix (NFLX), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Citigroup (C), United Airlines (UAL), JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) others.  The mix of reporting firms this week consists of financial, customer, basic materials, health care, home builders and many more.
In the Nasdaq post, Zacks Sector evaluation for Q2 vs. Q1 2019 reveals concern in several of industries while Consumer Discretionary and Retail/Wholesale shows Revenues increase and Margins fall.  Overall, it’s fairly distressing to find these expectations when one believes that the strong economic data being published lately.

In prior posts, we have proposed a easy trade installation technique we use to identify entry and exit points — that the 100% Fibonacci Extension Move.

Our cycle index resources and predictive modeling suggests August 19, 2019, is your date to be on the lookout for and after that date, we believe the US and global stock markets will begin a new downward cost phase that could cause a dramatic price reduction. See our August 19 Best warning here
When anything has disrupted those industries over the past 3months it has become the jolt to the markets related to the October 2018 into December 2018 US stock market price collapse and the continuing trade wars/issues together using China.  It is our opinion that these trade wars and pricing disruptions have resulted in a much more difficult environment for particular US and foreign countries to accomplish Q2 expectations.  Thus, we are looking for a few interesting surprises during the next 10 to 15+ days.

This Daily DJI chart highlights our expectations and highlights our Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs that suggest the authentic price top creation will happen sometime near August 19, 2019.  We think this season is crucial and that price could begin an extremely quick and remarkable downside cost move close to this date based on the data we’re expecting to see out of Q2 earnings.
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Legislation and earnings Conclusion:

Cost rotations, such as the one we are suggesting, may happen after August 19, 2019, are very healthy for the markets.  These kinds of moves permit price to establish resistance and support levels, revalue assets, shake out certain biases and supply for future price moves/trends.
The computer and tech sector appears uniquely poised for an extremely demanding year based on Zachs expectations.  Overall, Q1 2019 earnings expectations were -6.7%, Q2 2019 earnings expectations are -11.5percent and Q3 earnings expectations are -11.5 percent.  This does not seem to be quite a favorable set of information for the rest of this year and we believe this is where the true threat of a US stock market price collapse resides.

This week I will discuss a report showing a few really fascinating charts rm a very different point of view that indicate a larger correction is forthcoming based on some major businesses and proprietary analysis. It is possible to get this report by joining my free newsletter situated at the base of my own Present Index Trade Signal Page here.
We urge traders to plan and prepare for this potential installment by lowering risk in long intervals and preparing for a potential downside price move that could be related to global marketplace concerns, Q2 earnings statistics and continued global trade/economic problems.
Next week, July 22 through July 26, a total of 659 businesses will soon be reporting earnings.  We believe the bulk of these earnings reports provides improved US and global market price volatility and might actually pose a number of surprise consequences (both negative and positive ).

I believe the results of the past 6+ months with regards to international trade, currency devaluations, and consumer sentiment will result in poorer US earnings in Q2 than anytime within the last 3+ years.  We believe US stocks, after recently nearing crucial psychological price amounts ($300 SPY and $3000 ES) are poised to set up a sideways Pennant cost pattern formation led into a key cost breakdown near the center of August 2019.
(Source)

Overall, once this price revaluation event is finished, much like case in October ~Dec 2018 and the event in May 2019, the US stock market will likely resume the upward cost bias/trend and continue to try to set up new all-time cost highs into 2020 and beyond.
I can inform you that huge moves are about to begin unfolding not just in property, but metals, stocks, and currencies. A number of these supercycles are going to survive years. Brad Matheny goes to excellent detail with his simple to comprehend charts and guide about this. His financial market study is one of a kind and a true eye-opener. PDF manual: 2020 Cycles — The Best Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Months ago, we cautioned that a July 2019 market top is putting up and that we believed the US stock market would rotate considerably lower after a summit in July installation.  Approximately 45 days ago, we adjusted our expectations to indicate that this shirt would likely shape in August or early September based on our predictive modeling method output and our cycle programs.  We’ve honed down the date to August 19, 2019 (+/- 5 days) as the date which we believe the US stock market will TOP or initiate a fresh downside price transfer from this season.
The Nasdaq website reported this article on June 17, 2019, which we discovered interesting.

(Supply )
Expectations for Q2 2019, and to be very honest — that the rest of 2019, is complete quite negative from this report.  We consider the US markets will nonetheless be the top-performing global stock market due to the potency of the US market and dynamic foundation of expansion and possibility moving forward 2 to 4+ years.  But we are very concerned that the second half of 2019 stock market correction is about to hit and shock traders having a -15% to -20% (or more) cost collapse initiated with the new psychological cost levels being busted as well as the Q2 earnings statistics that could jolt the global markets.

As a technical evaluation and trader since 1997, I have already been through a few bull/bear marketplace cycles. I believe I have a fantastic pulse on the sector and timing key turning points to both short-term trading and long-term investment capital. The chances are massive/life-changing if managed properly.

Major Index Top In 3 to 5 Weeks?

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/07/major-index-top-in-3-to-5-weeks/

At present, though, we believe the US stock exchange is just 3 to 5 months away from a major cost payable formation and that the disadvantage price move will likely result in a, roughly, -16% to -25% drawback price rotation prior to the end of 2019.  We consider US earnings will drive this Custom Price Cycle graph to levels near or above the top price station amount and that will induce the US Dollar greater as well as a shift in funding installation ahead of the end of September.  The change will be far from technology and mid-caps and into the safety of money, metals and also large-cap equities.
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Our researchers believe the strength of the US Dollar will continue to push foreign investments in the US stock exchange and prompt a rally to rates close to the center of this price envelope before stalling and topping in August or September of 2019.  This top creation should result in a cost reduction in america stock market of at least 16% with a maximum decline degree of somewhere between 24 percent to 28% in general.  We’ll get into more detail about the following in this report.

This shift in capital investments will probably transpire over several weeks in front of a critical cost breakdown starts.  In other words, we anticipate a high formation to set up somewhere between August 15 and September 16.  This top creation will likely result in 3~6 weeks of downward pricing pressure prior to a larger price breakdown occurs.  We believe the larger cost breakdown will coincide with a few external economic event and lead to a migration of funds away from risk and into cash/metals/safety.  At the moment, our estimate is that external economic occasion might be a currency devaluation event (Asian currencies breaking down and putting pressure across Europe and the remainder of the developing world).
We would like our readers to understand this Custom Price Cycle graph highlights the amount where the cost bottom will likely form, close to the lower level of the present cost , and indicates the present price rally will probably attempt to breach crucial psychological price amounts ($300: SPY, $3000: ES, $30k: INDU) earlier this new cost top completes.
Our investigators rely on lots of proprietary resources and cycle forecasting technologies.  We also utilize custom index graphs to help measure price cycles, trends, support & resistance and several different characteristics of these markets.  Recentlywe posted an article regarding this US Dollar and foreign currencies using custom indicator techniques.  In earlier times we have emphasized our Custom Price Cycle indicator that we use to judge market sentiment, topping and bottoming installations.  Each of these tools are crucial for our group of investigators while they attempt to detect trade setups and bigger market occasions.

This Custom Price Cycle graph, below, highlights the current price installment of the US stock market regarding previous high and low points.  The nearer we come to the upper cost station, the more inclined we want to see price installation and find a cost top creation.  Though, history has indicated that price is able to move around these upper degrees and continue to fad within a up cost channel for several weeks and months.  Thus, at some point in the future, we would expect to see this Custom Price Cycle graph revert back to 2017 type price activity where cost constantly tries to stay near the upper price station levels using very mild price rotations.

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The potency of the US Dollar, while foreign markets have been contracting, would introduce an extremely ominous event as credit, debt and potential operational standards of several foreign corporations, states, governments, and consumers could encounter severe worries.

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Pay really close attention to how the foreign currency market reacts on this time-span and pay close attention to Gold/Silver and the US Dollar.  We believe this topping cost formation is going to unfold as we’re implying and we believe this will be an incredible chance for skilled technical dealers.

The US technology sector might be uniquely vulnerable should this event unfold as we all guess.  Foreign markets and investor are heavily invested in america technology industry.  A number of these investors have transferred their funds to the US Technology industry to prevent risks linked to their home nation’s currencies and also to take advantage of the US Dollar advantage.  A decline in the US stock market, of any amount greater than 10%, could send a shock-wave through the global markets and induce investors to shift away from danger and into safety.
Our researchers believe we are only a couple of weeks away in this event and those Q2 US earnings can push the US stock exchange above these psychological cost levels.  It’s this occurrence, the push above the primary psychological price levels ($ 300: SPY, $3000: ES, $30k: INDU) which will probably activate the topping event and set off a chain reaction occasion that we’ve clarified.
Chris Vermeulen — Technical Traders Ltd
As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have already been through several bull/bear marketplace cycles. I think I have a fantastic pulse on the current industry and timing crucial turning points to both short-term trading and long-term investment funds. The chances are massive/life-changing if handled correctly.

 TheTechnicalTraders.com

Expect to see the volatility index to begin rising and to find the cost of choices to jump too. I posted this VIX chart and cycle investigation a few weeks ago and its good for another couple of weeks concerning its direction.

IN CONCLUSION:

After these new price drops are attained over the key psychological cost levels, we consider the new price top will immediately start to form using a short interval of sideways price action, and then a price decline back below these emotional levels and probably initiating a downward cost reduction of 11 to 13%.  It is our opinion that this downward price decline in america stock market will align with improved international marketplace weakness and currency devaluations which are likely to be much greater in scope and scale compared to the US stock market price decrease.
Currently, we’re highlighting a number of our customized made index graph that indicate a market top may just be 3 to 5 months off and the installment of the industry top may surprise many dealers. We published a fantastic prediction chart here also.
It’s extremely likely that some issue related to the US/China trade deal motivates this money devaluation move or some extended credit/debt crisis event grows more obvious to investors.  We believe the Asian currencies are especially at risk for this event and that European and development market currencies will probably collapse as a consequence of the Asian/European currency cost declines.
We think the US Dollar will continue to keep strong when staying above $95~96 throughout the majority of the price decline.  We think the strength in the US Dollar may be a catalyst to your future worldwide market cost declines and may also play in future activities from precious metals and metals.
To begin with, we will highlight our Smart Money Custom Index chart on a Monthly charting foundation.  Since you can see as the best price lowest in 2009, and also employing the price range in 2015 to 2016 (the rotation before this 2016 Presidential Elections) because the basis for the forward brand new, our Smart Money index shows the markets have shrunk to levels just over the envelope in January 2018, then rotated reduced to levels close to the lower envelope amounts in December 2018.  This protracted price rotation indicates the entire year of 2018 prompted a massive price spinning event that probably resulted in a price revaluation cycle.

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We’ll keep you advised as this plays outside using Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter should you like what I offer, join me together using the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I browse these financial market and build wealth while some lose almost everything they own throughout the next financial crisis. Join Right Now and Receive a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You!

Technical Analysis Shows Aug/Sept Market Top Pattern Should Form

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/06/technical-analysis-shows-aug-sept-market-top-pattern-should-form/

With our proprietary price modeling tools and systems, believe the important price peak in the usa stock market will now occur between August 26 and September 20 (see the chart below).  Quite a few crucial variables are lining up to extend this topping routine into August/September along with also the important component is the creation of this Pennant/Flag formation and also the simple fact that this price pattern must complete prior to a breakout/breakdown movement is possible.

Please review the next research articles by our staff…
Chris Vermeulen

We have been pouring on the information and now consider our previous forecast of a July/August 2019 marketplace top ought to be revised to an Aug/Sept 2019 expected market top layout.  The subsequent study posts we reprinted lately indicated a top may form in July/Aug 2019 and think this critical top creation would form at new all-time highs.  We believe this is possible regarding the price predictions, nevertheless we think the cost top will now shape near the end of August or early September after an extended Pennant/Flag formation is finished.


In fact, There Are Many super cycles beginning to occur as we venture to 2020 and beyond that Brad Matheny and layout in our new publication: 2020 Cycles — The Greatest Opportunity Your Lifetime

That is one scenario of how the stock exchange may perform, we’ve got a few others we are following with subscribers on our Wealth Building Newsletter with considerably more detail. Daily we discuss a pre-market movie and show you where all the major markets have been headed for the day, week and month ahead. The study is done on the futures market but we concentrate on trading ETFs for the indexes and commodities.

An upside cost bias will continue during the formation of this Pennant/Flag creation leading to a moderate price breakout by which the S&P will temporarily break at the $3000 cost amount, then stall — forming the very best pattern/rotation we’re expecting.

As we move closer to these vital dates, we will keep you informed of our expectations and that which new information our predictive modeling methods are suggesting.  In the meantime, get ready to play a few medium price swings.  Do not get caught on the short side of this movement just yet.  We’ve got no actual confirmation that a large downside move will happen during the next 60+ days and these early shorts are going to feel a great deal of pressure over the next 45 to 60+ times if the market moves higher.
On June 5, 2019we posted this VIX graph in the content listed above.  The US stock market will rotate greater within an upward price bias over the next 45+ times.  This will project the Pennant/Flag formation and set up the crucial top pattern that we are anticipating in late August or early September.  When you take a look at this chart of the VIX, below, think about this the upside price move from the VIX may be postponed by about 10 to 15 days according to our newest investigation.  We believe the VIX expansion will probably happen as we are suggesting, we are altering the deadline of the predictions to support our latest research.

A continued Capital Shift will drive costs higher within the next 45 to 60+ times in which foreign funds will continue to chase the powerful US Dollar and the potency of the US stock market.  The true crucial price move, where our analysis will become more significant, happens after September 1, 2019 — where the Pennant Apex and a crucial inflection point are set.

Fed to Tank Dollar And Will Not Save the Stock Market

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/06/fed-to-tank-dollar-and-will-not-save-the-stock-market/

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s remarks are his very own, and aren’t a recommendation or an offer to purchase or sell securities. Though a capable and skilled stock market analyst, Clive Maund isn’t a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the marketplace and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to purchase and sell securities when they’re subject to the previous approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in compliance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Therefore, a key purpose for us to appreciate here is that a new rate reduction system from the Fed will get the dollar to drop difficult –and it is currently under threat from the move to de-dollarize from countries like China and Russia, that have been the subject of U.S. bullying and risks for a long time now. The Fed can’t have its cake and eat it too–whether it wants to go ahead and drop rates to rescue the stock market, fine, and the dollar will tank, and the stock exchange too into the bargain because lots of foreign investors facing money losses will pull their funds out of the usa.

Charts furnished by the writer.

Clive Maund has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a prosperous resource business site, since its inception in 2003.

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses moves from the Fed and what they might mean for the U.S. buck and precious metals.

Instead what they are most likely to achieve by cutting rates is to cause a severe decline in the dollar, that until now has basked in its “king of hell” status, since although prices at the U.S. were historically low, they had been greater than at other places like Europe and Japan, and so money was attracted into the buck and U.S. investments. Pretty soon we’re likely to discover how attractive U.S. investments would be to foreigners once the dollar tanks.
It’s measure of just how delicate and precarious the situation is that the minute the markets seemed like they were on the brink of crashing again, which of course they were, the Fed moved to face it off by stating that they would start cutting rates. How things change as it was only late last year they were speaking about increasing rates three or four times annually. Basically what has happened is they have lost control they don’t control the markets, the markets command them. The reason that they gingerly elevated rates into last year was that they were trying to develop some “wiggle room” ahead of the next crisis–well, the next catastrophe is on our own doorstep, and they are already using up their now quite limited ammo.

That is why gold is strong now and the reason it is soon going to split abouve $1400 into a significant new bull market, and this is the reason we’ll be concentrating increasingly more on the very undervalued precious metals industry going forward.
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There’s a big difference between now and 2008, if they were able to drop rates from 5 percent to zero, since today they could simply drop them from approximately 2%. This discuss cutting prices and the true cutting of prices going forward is too little too late–the effects of the earlier high rates against a background of enormous debts and also of the transaction warfare are working their way through the machine, are a harmful juggernaut which won’t be halted by tinkering around with already very low interest prices. Thus the relief rally yesterday that is continuing this morning is expected to peter out and undo into the disadvantage before much longer.


By The Gold Report