Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/06/gold-price-forecast-2020-how-the-presidential-election-could-affect-the-gold-market/
Silver obtained slammed together with virtually all other assets during that notorious fall. Gold, however, weathered the storm fairly nicely and ended up placing in a gain for the year.
The sensational election success of Donald Trump in 2016 lit a fire under the stock market and put something of a damper on international demand for physical valuable metals in the United States.
The 2020 presidential election is already shaping up to be one of the most bitterly contested ever before. The result might have tremendous impacts for all asset markets, such as precious metals.
Before Trump, the foundation of the Democrat Party had been lurching ideologically to the left. Today Democrat candidates are being forced to deny”mixed market” welfare statism and fully embrace socialist doctrines. Virtually the entire area of Democrat presidential candidates has adopted Bernie Sanders’ platform.
The cash metal went to reach record $1,000/oz in early 2008. Over that exact identical time, silver improved from beneath $8/oz to over $20/oz. Significantly, precious metals vastly outperformed the stock exchange throughout the four years of Bush II’s second semester.
One exception: Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, who is operating as a pragmatic problem together with a company background. He gave an address to California Democrats in which he said socialism was the incorrect way to go. He was roundly booed.
It seems like Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which is probably coming in one form or another in recent years ahead as the government struggles just to pay interest in a growing debt burden. Beneath MMT, the government would directly print the dollars it must close its shortages rather than issue new bonds. Similar financial experiments didn’t work out so nicely in Zimbabwe and Venezuela.
Unlike stocks, precious metals have a tendency to gain from this”panic” trade. If a pro-socialist Democrat really wins the White House at 2020, you can bet a whole great deal of investors will decide to hunker down and get defensive.
Gold and silver markets may start to show a reverse correlation to trends in President Trump’s poll numbers.
Meanwhile, a lot can happen before November 2020 — notably with all the Federal Reserve seemingly set to turn dovish and reduce interest rates this summer.
Some historic research to presidential election cycles suggests that the stock exchange tends to do well moving into an election season. The government tends to concentrate on economical statistics that is padding.
A few in the conservative press stamp Democrats as affected by”Trump derangement syndrome”
Given President Trump’s repeated clashes with the Federal Reserve more than that which he sees as”too tight” monetary policyhe is all too inclined to support a bipartisan push for a more”actively controlled,” more inflationary financial system.
The last time that a Republican incumbent was searching for re-election had been 2004. Silver and gold markets performed well from the second half of 2003 and produced small gains in 2004. The metals were in the early stages of a significant bull market.
Meanwhile, 76-year old”Uncle Joe” Biden is disavowing himself to appease much left activists but that is proving to be hard for him. Under pressure, he abruptly reversed his decades’ long support of the Hyde amendment, which bars federal funding of most abortions.
Though gold costs are now up since Trump’s election win and also inauguration, silver has trended reduced — and coin and bar demand remains soft compared to the past years under President Obama.
By Money Metals News Service
Investors who are considering selling precious metals, or refraining from purchasing until Trump leaves workplace, should assess their assumptions.
And during election years, Fed officials (who swear up and down they aren’t inspired by politics) tend to avoid making policy motions (like rate hikes) that may make them vulnerable to political strikes.
Silver and gold Fared Well Last Time a Republican Stood for Re-Election
She’d pay for her multi-trillion-dollar Progressive wish list by instituting a brand new prosperity tax and pushing the U.S. dollar reduced (i.e., inflation). As Warren put her financial policy (obscure as it is) would entail”more actively tackling our currency value.”
But, bigger macro forces now in motion — specifically, steadily increasing government debt and accommodative fiscal policy — will likely remain in motion through next year’s election and beyond, regardless of who wins. It is merely a matter of if the election results accelerate the debt-fueled monetary crisis that is coming.
When the GOP retains the White House in 2020, then it’s not necessarily bad news for alloys traders.
Gold and silver, that are tied to the market than shares, reveal small recent correlation with previous years.