COT Report: USD Index bets rise. Gold, Silver bets take a breather while VIX & Copper go more bearish

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/07/cot-report-usd-index-bets-rise-gold-silver-bets-take-a-breather-while-vix-copper-go-more-bearish/

The 10-Year Bond positions were almost unchanged this week because the bearish place is below the -300,000 web contract amount for another week.

US Dollar Index Speculators lifted their bullish stakes. Mexican Peso bets jump greater

Here are this week’s links to the latest Commitment of Traders data changes which were released on Friday.
Copper speculators, meanwhile, lasted along a more bearish path as brief stakes rose once more and for the time from the past fourteen days.


WTI Crude Oil Speculators marginally trimmed their bullish stakes following 3 weeks of profits

Substantial precious metals speculator contracts of the Gold futures totaled a net place of 244,763 contracts, according to the latest data this past week. This was an alteration of -14,183 contracts in the prior weekly total. Watch full article.
Silver bets have dipped for 2 weeks after a solid streak of its own that filed a four-week total gain of +52,974 contracts from June 4th to June 25th.
Substantial valuable metals speculator contracts of this silver futures lacked a web place of 25,151 contracts, according to the newest information this week. This was a change of -5,304 contracts from the last weekly complete. See full article.
This week in the COT data, we saw that precious metals speculators cooled off on their recent surge of bullish bets right into Gold and Silver. Gold positions had jumped by +172,258 net contracts in the past five weeks to the highest level since September of 2016 before this week’s retreat.


In the end, VIX speculators are continuing in their bearish ways as short positions have grown now for five straight weeks and for the seventh time out of their previous eight weeks.
In currencies, the USD Index Speculator bets got a boost this week while the Mexican peso bets climbed by over +18,000 contracts. Canadian buck stakes gained for a third successive week because speculators pushed their recently bullish net positions greater.


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is upgraded via the most recent Tuesday (info is 3 days old) and reveals a fast view of large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit dealers ) were positioned in the futures markets.


10-Year Notice Speculators bearish bets were nearly unchanged this week end

The WTI Crude petroleum speculators cut on their bullish internet positions after three straight weeks of gains. This statistics indicates that the present standing is under the contract level for a fourth consecutive week.


Gold Speculator bullish bets take a breather after strong 5-week streak

Large stock market volatility speculator contracts of the VIX stocks lacked a net place of -132,182 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -7,958 contracts from the prior weekly complete. See full post .
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Metals speculator contracts of this copper futures lacked a web place of -39,987 contracts, according to the newest data this past week. This was an alteration of -10,771 contracts in the previous total. See whole article.

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Japanese yen positions are extremely close to turning bullish and have gone out of a total of -99,599 net contracts on April 30th to just -3,651 contracts on July 9th.
This was a change of -2,661 contracts from the previous total. Watch whole article.
Substantial currency speculators increased their net positions at the US Dollar Index stocks markets this week, according to the most recent Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. Watch full article.

The CFTC Forex dealer positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of their business), non-commercials (large dealers that speculate to understand trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually smaller traders/speculators).

This was a change of 48 contracts in the prior total. See whole post .


Silver Speculators hauled on their bullish bets for 2nd week after strong gains

COT Report: USD Index bets rise. Gold, Silver bets take a breather while VIX & Copper go more bearish

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/07/cot-report-usd-index-bets-rise-gold-silver-bets-take-a-breather-while-vix-copper-go-more-bearish/

The CFTC categorizes trader places according to commercial hedgers (dealers who use futures contracts for hedging as part of their company ), non-commercials (substantial traders that speculate to comprehend trading profits) and nonreportable traders (generally little traders/speculators).

Copper speculators, meanwhile, continued along a bearish path as short bets rose once more and for the eleventh time out of the past fourteen days.
Reports:


Silver Speculators pulled back on their bullish bets for 2nd week following strong gains

The WTI Crude petroleum speculators cut back on their bullish net rankings following three consecutive weeks of earnings. This data shows that the current standing is below the contract amount for a fourth straight week.
The 10-Year Bond rankings were nearly unchanged this week because the bearish posture is below the -300,000 web contract level for a third week.

Mexican Peso bets jump greater

Large precious metals speculator contracts of this silver futures lacked a web position of 25,151 contracts, according to the most recent data this week. This was a change of -5,304 contracts from the previous weekly complete. See complete post .


10-Year Note Speculators bearish bets were almost unchanged this week


Here are this week’s links to the latest Commitment of Traders data changes which were released on Friday.
This week at the COT data, we saw that precious metals speculators chilled in their latest surge of bullish bets into Gold and Silver. Gold positions had jumped from +172,258 net contracts in the past five months to the maximum level since September of 2016 earlier per week’s escape .


Gold Speculator bullish bets require a breather after powerful 5-week run

Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reviews by Email
See full post .
Metals speculator contracts of this copper futures totaled a net place of -39,987 contracts, according to the most recent data this week. This was an alteration of -10,771 contracts from the prior complete. See complete post .

Canadian dollar stakes gained for a third successive week as speculators pushed their recently bullish web positions higher.
Substantial precious metals speculator contracts of this Gold futures totaled a net position of 244,763 contracts, according to the newest data this week. This was an alteration of -14,183 contracts in the prior weekly complete. Watch full post .
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public every Friday, is updated through the latest Tuesday (info is old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit dealers ) were positioned in the futures markets.

This was a change of -2,661 contracts from the weekly total. Watch complete article.
Large stock market volatility speculator contracts of the VIX futures totaled a net position of -132,182 contracts, according to the latest data this week. This was a change of -7,958 contracts from the prior complete. See complete article.

Big speculator contracts of the 10-Year Bond futures totaled a net place of -288,836 contracts, according to the most recent data this week. This was a change of 48 contracts from the last weekly complete. Watch whole article.
From CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

In the end, VIX speculators are ongoing in their own manners as brief positions have improved now for five straight months and for the seventh time out of their past eight months.



Silver bets have dipped for two weeks following a solid streak of its own which filed a four-week total profit of +52,974 contracts from June 4th to June 25th.

Could Gold Launch Into A Parabolic Upside Rally?

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/07/could-gold-launch-into-a-parabolic-upside-rally/

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system suggested that Gold would rally from the $1200 level to above $1300, then stall.  It suggested that in April or May of 2019, Gold will jump back under $1300 and put up a”momentum base” before attempting an upside breakout move afterwards forming the foundation.  Our study team identified April 21~24 since the probable”price low” for the”momentum base” using our advanced cost cycle and other study tools.

It is possible to see from the chart, over, that our upside targets out of our original research are above $1550~1600.  Imagine if we told you now think the upside targets could actually be above $1700 and more like $1750 to $1800 to a parabolic upside cost rally commencing after price breaks critical immunity levels?

We consider Gold is setting up for an unbelievable upside breakout movement after reaching our predicted target about $1450. For those of you who have been after our research and Gold calls, then we’ve nailed this movement and also our October 2018 predictive modeling call has lasted to mirror (almost exactly) the cost movement in Gold within the previous 10+ months.  See the chart below.
So kill 2 birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your
Our Cost Amplitude Arcs are a means of measuring price cycles, cost waves and allow us to seek out crucial price inflection points.  Since you can see, at which multiple arcs align and so are breached by cost, we generally see some type of greater price trending and volatility.  Currently, two distinct arcs are setting up to be broken and we think that this is essential because of the way that it aligns with our October 2018 lookup post.
This means that the US Dollar will probably continue to rally, or at least stay over $96, for another 25+ days plus that upside US Dollar price action will partly permeate the upside price potential in precious metals.  Overall, the upside momentum in metals will induce metals prices greater while the US Dollar continues to strengthen moderately.  Once the US Dollar breaks lower, metals will soon probably skyrocket higher (breaking beyond the Breakout Resistance level) and start the upside down move.
FREE GOLD BAR and enough trades to gain through the next metals
bull market and financial catastrophe!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have already been through a few bull/bear marketplace cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the industry and timing key turning points to the short-term trading and long-term investment funds. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.
Be prepared for these extraordinary price swings until they occur and learn how you can identify and exchange those wonderful trading chances from 2019, 2020, and outside with our  Wealth Building and Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t need to miss this huge move, people.  Because you can observe from our study, everything has been putting up for this particular move for several months — most traders/investors have just been searching for this.
Have a peek at this easy Gold/Silver/USDollar indicator graph.  The objective of this chart will be to relate the price of Gold to the price of Silver in US Dollar cost amounts.  It highlights that silver is still quite undervalued compared to Gold and any effort to restore a price equilibrium between Gold and Silver will probably result in both results: A. the cost of Gold drops, or B. the amount of Silver rallies faster compared to Gold rallies whereas that ratio will try to balance (because we return in 2013/2014).

We consider a key date for many traders/investors to be aware of will be August 19, 2019 (+/- 5 times ).  We believe this will be the date range which the marketplace will break out of current ranges and if fear and greed will probably solidify from the precious metals markets.  We’ve got roughly 35 days to go before this date and we believe Gold will probably continue to trade under the”Breakout Resistance” until renewed fear and greed become more evident in the worldwide markets.
Our Present Market Top Evaluation and Charts — Just Click Here
Any opportunity you find where Gold is trading below $1400 is an excellent opportunity to get ready for this movement.  Silver continues to trade below $15.50 and continues to be an extraordinary chance for traders that understand the ratio levels of valuable metals.  Do not miss this move.  It’s merely a matter of time (30+ days) now.
I am able to inform you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in currencies, metals, or stocks however globally and a few of these supercycles are likely to survive years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into excellent detail with his easy to understand charts and guide relating to this. His monetary market study is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. 
What would induce Gold to rally above $1600 at the moment?  Why do this become a time where renewed interest in valuable metals could drive such a major movement?  We consider a number of global financial aspects will become more noticeable within the subsequent 30 to 60+ days and that these important Cost Amplitude Arcs are indicating cost is setup to rally from these levels.  We consider the move higher will incorporate both Silver and Gold and that Silver will rally more powerful than Gold which would make this Gold/Silver ratio chart cost level to move bigger — towards our objective line (MAGENTA).

Connect me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock at the lowest speed possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these monetary market and build wealth while some lose nearly everything they have throughout the upcoming financial crisis.

Gold Price Forecast 2020: How the Presidential Election Could Affect the Gold Market

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/06/gold-price-forecast-2020-how-the-presidential-election-could-affect-the-gold-market/

Silver obtained slammed together with virtually all other assets during that notorious fall. Gold, however, weathered the storm fairly nicely and ended up placing in a gain for the year.
The sensational election success of Donald Trump in 2016 lit a fire under the stock market and put something of a damper on international demand for physical valuable metals in the United States.

The 2020 presidential election is already shaping up to be one of the most bitterly contested ever before. The result might have tremendous impacts for all asset markets, such as precious metals.

Before Trump, the foundation of the Democrat Party had been lurching ideologically to the left. Today Democrat candidates are being forced to deny”mixed market” welfare statism and fully embrace socialist doctrines. Virtually the entire area of Democrat presidential candidates has adopted Bernie Sanders’ platform.

The cash metal went to reach record $1,000/oz in early 2008. Over that exact identical time, silver improved from beneath $8/oz to over $20/oz. Significantly, precious metals vastly outperformed the stock exchange throughout the four years of Bush II’s second semester.
One exception: Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, who is operating as a pragmatic problem together with a company background. He gave an address to California Democrats in which he said socialism was the incorrect way to go. He was roundly booed.
It seems like Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which is probably coming in one form or another in recent years ahead as the government struggles just to pay interest in a growing debt burden. Beneath MMT, the government would directly print the dollars it must close its shortages rather than issue new bonds. Similar financial experiments didn’t work out so nicely in Zimbabwe and Venezuela.

Unlike stocks, precious metals have a tendency to gain from this”panic” trade. If a pro-socialist Democrat really wins the White House at 2020, you can bet a whole great deal of investors will decide to hunker down and get defensive.
Gold and silver markets may start to show a reverse correlation to trends in President Trump’s poll numbers.
Meanwhile, a lot can happen before November 2020 — notably with all the Federal Reserve seemingly set to turn dovish and reduce interest rates this summer.
2020 Presidential ElectionSome historic research to presidential election cycles suggests that the stock exchange tends to do well moving into an election season. The government tends to concentrate on economical statistics that is padding.

A few in the conservative press stamp Democrats as affected by”Trump derangement syndrome”
Given President Trump’s repeated clashes with the Federal Reserve more than that which he sees as”too tight” monetary policyhe is all too inclined to support a bipartisan push for a more”actively controlled,” more inflationary financial system.

Warning Heavy Debt


The last time that a Republican incumbent was searching for re-election had been 2004. Silver and gold markets performed well from the second half of 2003 and produced small gains in 2004. The metals were in the early stages of a significant bull market.

Meanwhile, 76-year old”Uncle Joe” Biden is disavowing himself to appease much left activists but that is proving to be hard for him. Under pressure, he abruptly reversed his decades’ long support of the Hyde amendment, which bars federal funding of most abortions.
Though gold costs  are now up since Trump’s election win and also inauguration, silver has trended reduced — and coin and bar demand remains soft compared to the past years under President Obama.
Socialism Stamp
By Money Metals News Service
Investors who are considering selling precious metals, or refraining from purchasing until Trump leaves workplace, should assess their assumptions.

And during election years, Fed officials (who swear up and down they aren’t inspired by politics) tend to avoid making policy motions (like rate hikes) that may make them vulnerable to political strikes.

Silver and gold Fared Well Last Time a Republican Stood for Re-Election

She’d pay for her multi-trillion-dollar Progressive wish list by instituting a brand new prosperity tax and pushing the U.S. dollar reduced (i.e., inflation). As Warren put her financial policy (obscure as it is) would entail”more actively tackling our currency value.”
But, bigger macro forces now in motion — specifically, steadily increasing government debt and accommodative fiscal policy — will likely remain in motion through next year’s election and beyond, regardless of who wins. It is merely a matter of if the election results accelerate the debt-fueled monetary crisis that is coming.
When the GOP retains the White House in 2020, then it’s not necessarily bad news for alloys traders.
Gold and silver, that are tied to the market than shares, reveal small recent correlation with previous years.

Countdown to The Precious Metals Breakout Rally

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/03/countdown-to-the-precious-metals-breakout-rally/

Chris Vermeulen

This upcoming Monthly Silver graph is the real gem of this precious metals world.  The upside possibility of Silver is really much larger than Gold currently.  Any breakout movement will likely see Silver push well over $30 per ounce and we simply need to see the $18.90 level for signs the breakout is beginning.  Silver will adhere to a similar highlighting patter as Gold.  We expect only about 30 days of buying opportunity left until this highlighting routine is completed.  Again, see the April 21 date because the key date for the breakout movement to begin.

If you like our study and our level of insight to the markets, then take a minute to see our site to find out how we assist our customers find and implement for achievement.  We’ve been predicting these market movements almost perfectly over the last 18+ months.  Discover how our study team is able to help you stay ahead of these swings in price and discover new opportunities for skilled traders.  Have a minute to see how we can help you find and implement improved trades by visiting TheTechnicalTraders.com today.



By TheTechnicalTraders.com
Now, we are publishing this research post to alert you that we are about 15~30 days off from the momentum base setup in Gold that will probably mirror .  Thuswe have about 20+ days to search for and target entrance opportunities in both Silver and Gold before this momentum bottom/base sets upward.

If you have been following our research over the last couple of months, then you already know that we’ve called just about every major movement in Gold over the last 14+ months.  Recently, we called for Gold to muster to  $1300 place, launch a slight peak, stall and return to set up a momentum base pattern.  We called this move to take place back in January 2019 — almost 30+ days before it occurred.


Please think about the study we’re presenting to you today.  Our predictive modeling procedures have been phoning the metals markets quite precisely over the last 14+ months.  If our prediction of a momentum foundation near or on April 21 is right, then we must start to see an extraordinary upside price swing in Silver and Gold shortly following this date.  You won’t need to miss this one — trust .  There’ll be time for you to grab this move when it begins — it might be an extended upside movement.  Pay attention to put April 21 in your calendar now.

Palladium has attained our first Fibonacci upside targets.  We anticipate price to consolidated and possibly rotate near the $1500 price level.  Ideally, price could fall under the $1300 price amount and target the 1100 area before finding any actual support.  Provided that industrial demand lasts for Palladium, we expect to see continuing upside price activity over the very long term.  At the moment, we are expecting a price contraction as global industrial demand may falter somewhat.
Technical Traders Ltd..

This Monthly Gold chart, below, shows you the historic peaks which constitute a current resistance level near 1370.  This degree is essential in understanding the way the momentum foundation and next breakout will occur.  This immunity level must be broken until the upside rally can continue above $1400, then $1500.  Ultimately, the momentum base we are expecting for form prior to April 21 is that the”last foundation” to set up prior to a much larger upside rate movement takes place.  In other words, pay attention over the subsequent 30 days until this movement happens.