Canada maintains rate but trade conflicts cloud outlook

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/07/canada-maintains-rate-but-trade-conflicts-cloud-outlook/

“The Bank of Canada today claimed its target for the overnight rate at 1 3/4 percentage. The Bank Rate is 2 percent and the deposit fee is 1 1/2 percentage. The Bank had incorporated such unwanted effects in previous Monetary Policy Reports (MPR) and in this forecast has made additional adjustments in light of poorer opinion and activity at major economies. Trade conflicts involving the United States and China, specifically, are curbing manufacturing activity and business investment and shoving commodity rates.
Policy is responding to the slowdown: central banks in the US and Europe have signalled their willingness to provide greater accommodative monetary policy and further policy stimulus was executed in China. In this context, international monetary conditions have eased considerably. The Bank currently expects international GDP to grow by 3 percent in 2019 and also to fortify about 3 1/4 percent in 2020 and 2021, together with all the US slowing to a speed close to its potential. Escalation of commerce conflicts remains the biggest downside risk to the Canadian and global outlooks.
After temporary weakness in late 2018 and early 2019, Canada’s economy is coming to growth about possible, as anticipated. Growing in the second quarter appears to be more powerful than predicted because of a temporary factors, for example, change of weather-related slowdowns from the first quarter along with a spike in oil production. Consumption is being supported by a healthy labor market. At the federal level, the home market is stabilizing, even though there are still significant adjustments underway in some regions. A material decrease in high-income mortgage rates is encouraging home action. Exports rebounded in the second quarter and will grow moderately as overseas demand continues to expand. However, ongoing trade conflicts and competitiveness challenges are dampening the outlook for investment and trade. The Bank jobs real GDP growth to moderate 1.3% in 2019 and about 2 percent in 2020 and 2021.
Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with a few recent upward pressure from greater food and automobile prices. Center measures of inflation are also close to two percent. CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gas prices and a few other temporary factors. As poor in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is forecast to return to 2 per cent by mid-2020.
Recent data show the Canadian economy is returning to possible expansion. On the other hand, the outlook is clouded by persistent trade pressures. Taken together, the amount of accommodation being provided from the current policy interest rate stays appropriate. Since Governing Council continues to track incoming data, it is going to pay particular attention to developments in the energy industry and the effects of trade conflicts around the prospects of Canadian growth and inflation. ”

The Bank of Canada issued the following statement:

In May Canada’s headline inflation rate jumped to 2.4 percent from 2.0% on higher food and transport expenses.

Canada’s central bank left its benchmark goal for the overnight rate stable at 1.75 percentage but turned slightly more dovish since the outlook is clouded by “escalating international trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions” that’s weighing on business sentiment despite stronger-than-expected financial growth in the second quarter.
The Bank of Canada (BOC), which has retained its key rate steady since October 2018, said the market, as anticipated, was returning to its growth potential following temporary weakness in overdue 2018 and early 2019, and increased its 2019 growth forecast to 1.3 percent in April’s prediction of 1.2% as a surge in oil production helped increase growth, consumer spending keeps growing steadily and residential investment appears to have stabilized.
But softer overseas demand, lower commodity prices and trade constraints are departing their adverse effect and BOC lowered its 2020 growth prognosis to 1.9 percent in the preceding 2.1 percentage.
Canada’s gross domestic product climbed 1.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of the year, down from 1.6 percent in the past quarter, but BOC increased its prediction for growth in the second quarter to 1.3 percent from 1.0 percent from its latest monetary policy report.
After controlling its rate steady at 0.50 percent for two years, BOC in July 2017 started tightening its monetary policy stance and raised its rate five times before pausing in October 2018 as the international financial downturn began to wane.
As the other leading central banks, BOC turned more dovish at the beginning of this season but in May it turned into slightly more upbeat since it became clear the slowdown by the end of last season and early this season was temporary and the economy was starting to rally.
Today’s announcement is slightly more downbeat than in May, representing an economy that is growing around its possible but uncertainty from trade conflicts and global tensions is taking a toll on business opinion and clouding the outlook.
“Taken together, the level of accommodation being provided by the present policy interest rate stays proper,” BOC stated, adding it will be paying particular attention to the energy sector and the effects of trade conflicts about the prospects for growth and inflation in incoming data.

     Inflation is mainly in line with BOC’therefore target of 2.0% and is forecast to reach 1.8 percent this year, marginally down from 1.9% in April’s fiscal policy report, before increasing to 1.9% in 2020 and 2.0 percent in 2021.

Norway maintains rate but says still likely to hike in June

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/05/norway-maintains-rate-but-says-still-likely-to-hike-in-june/

In September 2018 Norges Bank (NB) raised its speed for the very first time in over 7 decades and in March this year after it stated it was possible to raise the rate again in the next 6 months to curb inflation out of faster-than-expected economic growth and a poor exchange rate of the krone.
The March guidance by NB’s executive board was based on forecasts on its monetary policy report also today the central bank said information because then indicate little had changed.
“The outlook and balance of risks has been imply a slow increase in the coverage rate,” NB said, adding the uncertainty surrounding global progress persist but capacity usage is continuing to grow and inflation is significantly greater than projected.
“The Executive Board’s current evaluation of the prognosis and balance or risks suggests that the policy rate will most likely be increased in June,” NB Governor Oeystein Olsen said in a declaration.
The executive board is scheduled to announce its second policy decision on June 20 when the central bank also updates its economic prediction.
In another address to the parliament, Olsen said the central bank’s plan was to move slowly to a more normal interest rate level, with the possibility the policy rate could climb to 1.75 percent from the end of 2022.
That, however, means that the typical housing mortgage rate can rise to 3.5 percent from 2.6 percent in March so “we therefore believe that interest rates won’t be as high as in previous upturns. ”
Olsen also stated the risk outlook is dominated by global developments, such as rising protectionism and political instability that weigh on global growth, and when trade tensions depend, expansion among trading partners might be lower than projected in March.
“The uncertainty surrounding global changes and the consequences of monetary policy suggests a careful way of interest rate setting,” Olsen stated to parliament’s committee on finance and economic affairs.
Since the middle of the year Norway’s inflation rate has decelerated but stays over the central bank’therefore 2.0 percent  target.
In March headline inflation surged to 2.9 percent, continuing to decline from December’s 3.5 percentage but core inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.6 percent in February.
      Within its March quarterly monetary policy report, the central bank increased its prediction for the policy rate from its December report but lowered it slightly further out, together with the upward shift reflecting stronger domestic demand and a weaker exchange rate of the krone.
     The downward revision of this speed route reflects the prospects for reduced growth and a slow rate rise one of Norway’s trading partners, changes exemplified by the recent dovish changes by leading central banks, like the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.
     In the March coverage file, NB’s coverage rate was viewed averaging 1.1 per cent annually, up from December’s forecast of 1.0 percentage, and 1.6 percent in 2020, up from 1.4 percent previously forecast.
     But for 2021 that the rate is predicted to average 1.7 per cent, down from 1.8 percent, and then remaining at that amount in 2022.

     Though its 2 speed hikes, Norway’s krone has been steadily discriminated from the U.S. dollar since February 2018 and was trading in 8.77 to the dollar today, down 0.7 percent this year.


     Norges Bank issued the following press release:

“Norges Bank’s Executive Board has made a decision to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 1.0 percent.
At Monetary Policy Report 1/19, which was printed on 21 March 2019, the Executive Board’s assessment was that capacity utilisation in the Soviet economy was slightly above a normal level. Underlying inflation was a little higher than the 2 percent inflation target. The policy rate was increased by 0.25 percentage point to 1.0% in March. The Executive Board’s evaluation of the prognosis and balance of dangers suggested that the coverage rate would be raised in the course of the.
The outlook and balance of risks continues to imply that a gradual increase in the policy rate. The uncertainty surrounding developments persists. Back in Norway, capacity utilisation seems to be climbing as expected, while inflation has been projected. Overall, new information indicates that the outlook for the coverage rate for the period is little changed since the March Report.
The Executive Board decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged at 1.0 percent.
“The Executive Board’s present evaluation of the prognosis and stability of risks indicates that the coverage rate will most likely be raised in June”, says Governor Øystein Olsen.

Norway’s central bank left its policy rate at 1.0 percent but confirmed it remains on track to increase its speed again in June since the latest data shows higher-than-projected inflation while power usage has been increasing largely as expected.

By CentralBankNews.info

BOJ keeps stance, expansion goes on despite slowdown

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/03/boj-keeps-stance-expansion-goes-on-despite-slowdown/

Japan’s central bank abandoned its monetary policy stance unchanged, as expected, but acknowledged the nation ’s exports and industrial production have been affected by the worldwide economic slowdown.
     However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) still expects the economy to continue its “moderate growth ” despite the downturn in overseas economies as national demand trends upward, helped by government spending.
     “Even though exports are estimated to show any weakness for now, they’re expected to be about a moderate increasing tendency on the back of overseas economies growing moderately on the whole,” BOJ stated.
     In now ’s announcement, the BOJ’s policy board confirmed its monetary policy of controlling the yield curve that’s been in place since September 2016 – Quantitative and Qualitative Easing with Yield Curve Control (QQE) – and this coverage could continue until inflation reaches its 2 percent target.
     In its outlook for economic activity and prices from January, the BOJ reduced its inflation forecast for the fourth time, together using inflation excluding new food noticed rising only 0.8 percent in fiscal 2018, which ends this season, down from October’s forecast of 0.9 percent.
    In January Japan’s heart inflation rate edged up to 0.8 percent from 0.7 percent in December.
    Consumer costs in fiscal 2019, excluding the impact of the consumption tax hike, are observed rising 0.9 percent, down from 1.4 percent previously forecast, because of lower oil prices, and also for financial 2020 inflation is seen at 1.4 percent, down by 1.5 percent.
     Japan’s market is predicted to continue to expand about its potential rate, together with growth in fiscal 2018 hit by natural disasters last summer.
     The estimate of gross domestic product increase in financial 2018 was lowered to 0.9 percent from October’s prediction of 1.4 percent.
     GDP grew 0.5 percent in the fourth calendar quarter of 2018 from the next quarter for annual growth of 0.3 percent, up from 0.1 percent in the next quarter.
     For this coming financial year, the forecast for growth was revised up to 0.9% from a past 0.8 percentage, and for fiscal 2020 expansion is observed at 1.0 percent, up from 0.8 percent.
     After falling from March 2018 to December, the yen rose strongly in late December but has since given up a number of the gains this season. Now the yen was trading in 111.8 to the U.S. dollardown 1.3 per cent this year.
      As part of its monetary policy, the BOJ revealed it would keep a negative interest rate of minus 0.1% on banks’ deposits that transcend reserve requirements along with the purchase of government bonds of about 80 trillion yen so as to maintain 10-year government bond yields approximately 0%.
       As part of its QQE policy, the BOJ also purchases Exchange-Traded-Funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so the outstanding sums increases at an annual rate of roughly 6 trillion and approximately 90 billion yen, respectively.
By CentralBankNews.info

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A currency is money in any form when in actual use or circulation as a medium of exchange. The UN recognizes 180 national currencies as legal tender. Some Asian nations have paper bills pegged at over several thousands for just a dollar. Asia has many least valuable currencies than any other continent.

While the value of some of these currencies is deliberately kept low for specific reasons, value of most of them is low due to poor leadership. Here are the 7 most worthless currencies in the world as of 2014, with exchange rate in Unite States dollar.

7) South Korean Won (1 US dollar = 1,101.49)
South Korea has deliberately manipulated its monetary policy to keep its money cheap. This makes the nation’s exports cheaper than those of competitors like Japan. How come the home to global giants like Kia, Samsung and Hyundai has a currency worth .0008 US$ ? It’s simple. They like it that way. They deliberately manipulate monetary policy to keep their money cheap which makes their exports cheaper than those from competitors like Japan.

6) Iraqi Dinar (1 US dollar = 1,154.44)
Plunging oil prices and terrorist activities are impacting the value of Iraqi Dinars negatively. The oil-rich nation is basically enmeshed in a brutal civil war without any cohesive social fabric to pull it back together. It’s not looking good for the Iraqi dinar revaluation.

5) Cambodian Riel (1 US dollar = 4,055.64)
Cambodia is still very poor; average annual income is just 6 and malnutrition among children is widespread. Although Cambodia is rich in natural resources, years of war and internal conflict have made it a poor country. The popular tourist destination’s future looks brighter. Tourism accounts for 17% of the Gross Domestic Product. There’s oil being found.

4) Laotian Kip (1 US dollar = 8,063.87)
Around three-fourths of the work force of Laos is engaged in growing rice. More than a third of the nation’s population lives below the global poverty line of US .25 PPP a day. Lao economy is growing quickly but ¾ of the work force is tied up in growing rice. The government’s goal to come off from the UN Development Program’s list of least-developed countries by 2020 is achievable.

3) Indonesian Rupiah (1 US dollar = 12,869.98)
Awful infrastructure, rampant corruption and foot-dragging bureaucrats are affecting the value of the Indonesian Rupiah. The archipelago nation subsidizes gas prices so much, it doesn’t have enough left over to build modern infrastructure.

2) Vietnam Dong (1 US dollar = 21,385.80)
Vietnam is astonishingly exotic and utterly compelling nation. The value of the Dong is kept low to boost exports. The nation has been, for much of its history, a predominantly agricultural civilization based on wet rice cultivation. Deep poverty has declined significantly in Vietnam. The dong is kept low to boost exports and everyone seems to like it that way.

1) Iran Rial (1 US dollar = 26,954.18)
Asia’s number least valuable currency is Iran Rial. Iran is hit really hard by the international sanctions over the nuclear program. This West Asian nation’s economy is a mixed economy. Around 60 percent of the economy is centrally planned. Iranian president said recently that the country has the potential to become one of the ten largest economies in the world within the next three decades.

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