Trade War Risks Prompt More Chinese Stimulus

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/06/trade-war-risks-prompt-more-chinese-stimulus/

USDCNH Holds Business Below $7, Bid Above Ascending Trendline

CPI inflation isn’t a significant concern for the Chinese in the moment as it’s a bit greater compared to other countries. That being said, PPI inflation — a gauge of industrial profitability — will likely probably be watched more carefully as it rose a mere 0.6percent year on year (YoY).

Additionally, the move came later PBOC has been prompted to inject more money into the banking community. And, naturally, it was a move to calm investors amid fears of further takeovers.
Up until now, it has been uncertain whether the failure to reach a trade deal between the US and China has been attributed to China’s lack of expertise when it comes to commerce matters.

In the short term, the couple looks bullish with invalidation at 6.9173 service and below the ascending trendline. If the downslide begins, costs could break below wave 4 at 6.8978 for a deeper correction.
This last set of data saw inflation climbing to a 15-month large  but the appreciation had been owed mainly to pork prices. In reality, carrying energy and food from this equation, core CPI inflation increased only 1.6 percent.
USDCNH

Sources close to officials also have said that the US has always had an advantage on trade issues, at least between the US and Chinese delegates, also that the Chinese have limited experience in managing trade disputes.
But there has not been an official reason behind the failure of the offer.

From Orbex

In a new announcement about the White House lawn, however, and regardless of Chinese officials’ lack of expertise in law, Trump said that it, was not, in reality, that the Chinese who are holding back the bargain . The president confirmed:
The 50% RSI just rejected bulls, but this might not survive long.
An escalation from the trade dispute and fears of renewed tariffs has forced the local authorities to take stimulus measures once more.  This has left room for infrastructure by extending additional credit. This time, some type of unique bonds are going to be applied as funding for infrastructure.

Trump Takes Positive Side Away

Regardless of credit enhancing, flows have remained at low levels. Really, at better numbers than last season, but still far below average. This seems to be painful for Chinese officials as they are worried about the way in which the nation’s GDP is going to pan out.

Chinese CPI Organizing 15-Month High, But Core Low

Trump’s comments took off some of the positive US-Mexico vibes in the economies.  He cautioned a deal needs to occur, but only provided that China respects the US’ earlier needs.

After the wave 4 correction finished at 6.8978, also following an upside bias indicated by the ascending trendline (gray color), the probabilities this ends up as a impulse wave 5 have grown.
“China is a major competition, and now China would like to make a bargain quite poorly. It’s me right now that is holding up the offer. And we are likely to do a Wonderful deal with China or we are not planning to do a whole lot”

The Chinese government went into easing mode back in July this past year. In actuality, it has done every single month of the second half of 2018 so as to offer stimulation.

This was a fairly good session for Chinese equities because of the stimulation measures with momentum relieving off after an increase in Oriental CPI inflation.

US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Markets, Gold, and Silver

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/05/us-increases-trade-tariffs-against-china-markets-gold-and-silver/

As the US/China commerce bargain breaks down the US increased tariffs on 200B of Chinese products.  China has pledged to retaliate to the transfer.  The past week has witnessed the markets shocked by two items: Iran sanctions and also US/China trade breakdown.  The markets had been anticipating a US/China commerce deal to be attained and optimism proved to be high — thus the rally in the stock market and the rally in america stock exchange.  What ?

(May be worth tens of thousands of dollars)

And that’s excactly what is happening right on queue. Actually, we shut out our SDS position on Thursday to get a fast 3.9% gain and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Gold is showing indications of a possible price leg at the first stages as we’d been indicating.  Our April 21~24 momentum foundation call ago appears to be precise.  We are just awaiting the price swing to begin.  When it starts, the momentum behind the upside movement will increase since it will capture the attention of several gold dealers and solidify the”panic” aspect of the move.

Well, we believe news that will likely hit the markets over the subsequent 3 + months, as well as this news, will still continue to prompt the Shake-Out we’ve been warning about.  Depending on how severe these information events are, that the spinning in the markets might be rather severe.
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Our recent study suggests the US stock market may try to form a bottom near these lows and that lows in the US stock market may be support.  Our research indicates the Transportation Index is contributing this movement.  We consider both the RED, as well as the ORANGE Moving Average degree and GREY Fibonacci projection points, will act as a price floor this week and next.  The YM could move lower by 100 to 200 points now, before regaining close to the close of the day, retesting those levels.


Silver is still lagging behind Gold normal.  We continue to trust the actual opportunity for there is located a trade in Silver.  The potential for a $22 o ~$28 upside cost swing on a industry breakdown or fear play is quite solid.  Headed into the 2020 US election cycle and with the uncertainty in the worldwide markets, we believe that this is actually the”sleeper trade” of their next 16+ months.  Silver must accompany when Gold starts to breakout to the upside.

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These US trade tariffs puts pressure on China to come to the table and develop and fair deal.  This really isn’t the old method of slow negotiations with no actual consequences.  For China, the lack of access to the US market may be catastrophic in both the short and long term.  Skilled traders should not be optimistic throughout this weekend.  Guard your longs and prepare for news during the next few weeks.  Here is the kind of market that can make or break most dealers.
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South Korea’s FX reserves slip in Sept. and swap deal with China expires

South Korea's foreign exchange reserves havedipped for the first time in seven months.

The country had enjoyed a steady rise in reservesfrom February to August, but the slight drop in September, combined with the central bank'sfailure to renew a currency swap deal with China, is worrying experts.

Lee Unshin reports.

According to the Bank of Korea, as of September,the nation's foreign exchange reserves stood at 384.

67 billion U.

S.

dollars,.

down 170million from the previous month.

It is the first dip in Korea's foreign exchangereserves in seven months.

As of the end of August, the country was theworld's ninth largest foreign exchange holder.

Central bank data shows that the greenbackstrengthening in the global market lowered the value of non-dollar currencies, includingthe Korean Won, Euro and Japanese Yen.

Meanwhile China's reserves remained the highestin the world, rising for the 8th month straight to over 3.

1 trillion dollars last month.

Seoul and Beijing's 56 billion dollar currencyswap deal came to an end earlier this week.

as the two nations failed to reach an agreementon terms to extend the deal.

The agreement had accounted for some 46-percentof the total value of Korea's foreign currency swap deals.

While BOK officials added that negotiationsto renew the deal are still underway,.

market analysts in Korea voice concerns that if thedeal is over for good, it could result in financial damage for both sides in the longrun.

They also stressed the need to keep Korea'sforeign exchange reserves high in case a new deal isn't agreed.

Lee Unshin Arirang News.

Source: Youtube

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DISCLAIMER:
(disclaimer & suggestions)
I am not your financial advisor. This is not financial advice.
No guarantees and or promises.

This is just how I look at this new online money thing called forex robots, cryptocurrency,
altcoins, bitcoin, blockchain – and what have you.

Make a decision out of free will and according to your current budget.
Consult with others and or professionals if you want to and when need be.

Vrijwaring en suggesties:
Ik ben geen financieel adviseur. Ik ben niet uw financiële adviseur.
Dit is geen financieel advies.
Geen beloftes – geen garanties. Maak een keuze vanuit vrije wil.

Dit is gewoon mijn/een gezichtspunt hoe ik naar nieuwe online geld dingen kijk die namen hebben zoals:
forex robots, cryptocurrency, altcoins, bitcoin, blockchain – enz.

Risicowaarschuwing:
Handelen in Forex, Grondstoffen, Opties en CFD’s is een risicovolle activiteit en u kunt meer verliezen dan uw initiële storting.
Zorg ervoor dat u de risico’s goed begrijpt en geen geld investeert dat u zich niet kunt veroorloven te verliezen.
Uw kapitaal loopt gevaar.

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Video Rating: / 5

http://www.youtube.com/v/1jQMOvCY_Hk?fs=1

Academic explanation of the marked to market mechanism of currency futures contracts