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Marijuana: Up in Smoke

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/03/marijuana-up-in-smoke/

Charts and pictures offered by the writer.
Canopy reported excellent Q3 effects on Feb. 14 in Canadian dollars. It was the first complete quarter of recreational sales in Canada and revenue increased to $83 million, up 256 percent from the previous quarter. The business sold 10,102 kilograms of cannabis and petroleum equivalent. The business is still losing money and also my first consideration was that the fantastic quarter was a result of inventory drawdown in expectation of legalization. But, stock at Dec. 31 was $184,961,000up from $150,406,000 reported Sept. 30, so was great to see.

Canopy has done a lot of diversification out Canada. In mid-January it created a $150 million investment to come up with large-scale hemp manufacturing in New York state.
Products

In the end of January Greg Mills, previously head of RBC Capital Markets’ global equities, combined the RISE board of supervisors. According to the statement, “Mills combined RBC at 1998 as part of equity trading, also in 2005 has been promoted to head of global equities and served in that position till 2018. Mills’ important responsibilities included business planning, risk management, international gain and loss, customer relations employee mediation and equity analysis. ”
Allow ’s consider several prior stocks that I remarked on and a couple new ones.
A company that has something in common with Canopy and Tilray is currently Valens Groworks. They’re recognized as a leader in this regard and also have agreements with many big cannabis manufacturers.

Volumes are mild, so it might take some patience to buy underneath US$0.25.
Valens won’t post the large earnings of selling a lot of consumer end product (flower) but will be capturing the margins on flower to petroleum, which are rather large. Its input costs are a lot lower and Valens is likely to be much more profitable than the big LPs.

On Dec. 13, 2018, Valens announced a bargain to provide multiyear extraction services to get Canopy Growth, and on Feb. 26, 2019, declared a multiyear deal using Tilray to get at least 15,000 kilograms (15,000 kg) of dried cannabis per year.

This graphic is a slide in the Valens presentation.
Costing $40 million cash from the $280 million market cap and the stock is trading at only five times projected 2019 earnings, quite cheap compared to many.

Both the Canadian and U.S. bud indicators had a very substantial dip following my Oct. 4 report and have now bounced up. The Canadian indicator appeared in January 2018 and had a bear market rally into the October 2018 high. The present rally looks like another tolerate rally.

On Feb. 7, Canopy announced it is increasing its fascination with Canopy Rivers from 26.5% to 27.3%. Canopy Rivers works collaboratively with Canopy Growth to spot tactical counterparties seeking fiscal and/or operating support and affiliation with the Canopy Growth group of businesses. This helps to create the Canopy brand and also provides diversification out Canada.

Ron Struthers founded Struthers’ Resource Stock Report 23 Years Back. The report covers senior and junior companies with ample trading liquidity. He began his Millennium Index of money stocks at 2003 – $1,000 spent then was worth $4,000 end of 2014 and the index returned 26.8% in 2016. He retired from IBM after 30 years in customer service, systems and business analyst, and also creating his own charting software.

In its statement on the farm invoice , the company mentioned “RISE’s lifestyle merchandise brands, Life Bloom Organics and Karezza, feature hemp-extracted cannabidiol oil. Using industrial hemp–the identical material legalized by the 2019 Farm Bill–has enabled their products to be available to most U.S. customers, with shipping offered to all 50 states. Using industrial hemp in their formulations also suggests that the RISE Life Science brands will gain from ongoing and much greater accessibility to standard raw plant materials. The farm bill helps support hemp farmers by offering them with agricultural benefits and support not before available. ”

Valens Farms’ B.C. Growing
With decades of success in broadcasting, publishing, online along with merchandising, Martha Stewart has strongly cemented herself as one of the very well-respected businesswomen from the United States. ”
I think RISE is put very well in this new cannabis market and the stock prices has not reflected that yet. There’s more trading on the side so I reveal that graph. There is an uptrend in position as well as the pullback from recent highs gives a much better entry cost. It will likely take costs over $0.40 for bandwidth to enhance.

If you talk at any pothead, they will tell you the cannabis can heal anything and is good for everything, such as improved sex. RISE does not have any cannabis production but has established its unique brand of wellness products, including a few for sexual enhancement. They say “gender sells,” therefore this might be a nice benefit for RISE.
It now reminds me of Canada’s variant of marijuana legalization. Maybe the legislators should have been when they made this policy change, because they sure screwed it up. You will find excess rules and laws around growing bud. However the greatest mistake, at least up to now, is a very poor retail market for recreational usage. Ontario is the largest province in Canada, with approximately 40% of the populace, and is now putting plans in place to open the very first 25 bud stores. It was a lottery and several of the winners don’t have very little retail or business experience.


The stock transactions more volume on the Canadian side under symbol VGW, but this US$ price graph shows a higher close, and trading over US$2.25 in February, thus a technical breakout. The recent pullback is an adequate entry level, and it has established some support about $1.80. A closing above $2.45 will be quite positive.

The inventory has dropped 50% since my warning that it had been way too expensive in ancient October 2018, and I still can’t locate a great reason to possess it. There is simply too much buzz on this inventory and even about the company’s website it’s tough to sift through and find the actual news. It is making some decent moves however, taking advantage of its high share worth and money.

  • Is shelf stable for over 180 days (not proven anywhere else);
  • has anti cannabis taste, color or odor;
  • offers effective, consistent dosing;
  • has lower dosage because of a rise in bio-availability once absorbed;
  • has a quicker onset and offset, which makes it the more healthy and more trusted edible choice.

This was a wonderful bargain for Valens since its own zero cash outlay, together with Kosha contributing 100% of property, construction and equipment expenses. All challenging assets will be split 50/50 between Kosha and Valens, thus supplying $37.5 million of net assets to Valens’ balance sheet with no cash outlay or liability incurred. Valens and Kosha will split profits to a 50/50 basis following cost recovery from Kosha. Valens Farms is anticipating Phase 1 production up to 56,000 kg a year of premium monocrop cannabis, primarily for extraction purposes. This will be exclusively extracted by Valens and made into Valens branded goods.

Markets change direction with consensus beliefs, which might change at any time and without notice. The author/publisher of the book has taken every precaution to provide the most accurate information possible. The information & data were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but because the information & data source are beyond the author’so control, no representation or warranty is made that it is complete or accurate. The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions will not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. Due to the ever-changing character of information & statistics the author/publisher strongly motivates the reader to speak directly with the company or using their private investment advisor to obtain up to date information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The author/publisher may or may not have a position in the securities and/or choices relating thereto, & may make purchases or earnings of these securities relating thereto from time to time from the open market or otherwise. Neither the information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to purchase or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein. The author/publisher of this letter isn’t a qualified financial adviser & is not acting as such in this book.
Many have compared the magnitude of the marijuana market to this beer and wine or alcohol industry. Are you laughing yet? I expect that when CBD-infused drinks are legalized after this year, they simply put them on the shelves of the LCBO, but this would be too straightforward and cost-effective.

The biggest joke is the low number. I am able to drive approximately 20 minutes down the highway from where I reside to the First Nations book, where there are more than 50 outlets running and they’re all busy. Since legalization, users are not worried about hauling marijuana they buy on the book. Many are driving one or two hours to receive it. The item, for the most part, comes from the black market. Just 1 socket, Legacy 420, asserts it has revenue of approximately $20 million annually, which was before legalization.

From The Life Science Report
Valens will not require large grow centers and will gain from the much higher margins on cannabis petroleum. Its proprietary extraction process is boasted as the very best and most efficient in the marketplace. Investors are able to attest to the using the ISO 17025 certification, the Thermo Fisher award and supply deals with Canopy Growth, Tilray and several more.
It is also worth noting the Valens Labs includes a Health Canada Dealers license, is the very first ISO 17025 accredited laboratory in Canada for a cannabis matrix also has been called a “Center of Excellence in Plant According Science” from Thermo Fischer Scientific.


Valens Groworks Corp. (VGW:CSE; MYMSF:OTC ): 93.2 million (93.2M) shares out; market cap CA$280M; money available $41M


Valens has declared numerous similar deals together with Organigram, Sundial Growers, Harvest One and, most recently, on March 11, using Green Organic Dutchman, that will provide Valens with an annual minimum of 30,000 kg in the first year and 50,000 kg in two.

The statement goes on to state, “Delivery of product to Solcanna is subject to regulatory acceptance from COFEPRIS, the Mexican Secretariat of Health’s agency responsible for the regulation of a variety of meals – and medical products in Mexico, to which application has been made. ” Mexico is a huge market with a population of more than 123 million individuals along with the government is shifting toward legalization. The government controls the house, so no significant setbacks are anticipated with the legislation.

  • A longer shelf life in comparison to this flower;
  • aging flower can be bought at a discount;
  • numerous applications as shown above;
  • higher margins on oils and resins.

The stock is still too pricey and the graph shows it could be on the brink of a technical break down. The stock price is just above a fantastic service level at $65. A near at $64 or lower could be a terrible sign, without a lot of support until it drops to around the $25 area. That’s where I expect that the stock is led and the March 18 earnings report may be the catalyst to make it started.


I have no doubt Canopy is going to be a pioneer and among the greatest brands in the cannabis space, but investors are paying the price for this. At the current yearly sales run rate and subtracting $4 billion cash from the market cap, the stock is currently trading around 50 times earnings. This is extremely expensive, but is frequently true with higher growth stocks where shareholders are pricing the stock on considerably higher future earnings and earnings. When there is a whiff of diminished growth, the stock will sell off hard. That is the risk before and about the upcoming quarterly report, as I feel it will be quite tough for Canopy to record triple-digit expansion over the last quarter.

  • A equity interest in Headset, a real life data and analytics firm;
  • Financing of Greenhouse Juice Company, a health and wellness beverage firm;
  • Growing its possession in Canapar, an Italy-based hemp production and processing platform capitalizing on the fast expanding European CBD (cannabidiol) marketplace.

Resource: Ron Struthers for Streetwise Reports   03/13/2019
According to the company release, at the uk, Canopy formed Spectrum Biomedical U.K., a new company dedicated to providing access to cannabis-based medicinal products into United Kingdom patients with severe unmet medical need. In addition to enlarging its medicinal cannabis surgeries in the uk, Canopy Growth’s Torun-based group, Spectrum Cannabis Polska in Poland, successfully completed its very first import of medical cannabis after finishing a rigorous regulatory approval process to have the product evaluated and accepted for sale.

Sector specialist Ron Struthers takes a peek at a range of cannabis businesses, including one firm that’s gone from a top to a downer, a business leader, and a company that promotes CBDs as good for sex.

Tilray will report Q4 and year-end earnings on March 18. Its Q3 results, reported Nov. 13, 2018, came in at US$10.0 million in earnings and it had cash of $104 million. In a $40 million earnings annual price rate, the stock is trading in 150 times annual earnings, which is about three times the amount of Canopy utilizing this comparable.

Life Bloom Organics’ proprietary Nano hemp extract oral sprays are seen at natural health food markets, including chiropractic offices, specialty retailers and medical dispensaries at Southern California, in addition to online.

Disclosure:

RISE simply began sales in Southern California from June/July, therefore its last financials only reflect about one month of earnings, which was CA$141,783. The company has only increased CA$5.5 million and have expanded into Mexico. We Will Have to see at least a couple quarters of earnings to get an idea just how its products are all moving
In the launch, Tilray states, “Since the owner of more than 50 manufacturers, ABG builds value by partnering with an expansive community of best-in-class manufacturers, operators and retailers. With a worldwide retail footprint of over 100,000 points available and over 4,500 branded freestanding shops and shop-in-shops, ABG’s portfolio creates about US$9 billion in retail sales each year. ”
According to the company, Canopy Rivers has recently expanded its portfolio by creating several innovative investments at the cannabis market worldwide, including:
I feel the Karezza product line differentiates RISE from most or all competitors. On July 12, 2018, RISE acquired Cultivate Kind. “This additional significant in-market expertise, provides instant earnings to the company and brings U.S. distribution capabilities in-house. Cultivate Kind was born from the conventional CPG service planet, and attracts over 30 decades of consumer marketing experience and brand launching approach into the RISE portfolio. For any start up with goods, marketing expertise is indispensable. ”

On March 3 Tilray declared its wholly owned subsidiary, “Tilray Portugal Unipessoal Lda (Tilray Portugal) has completed a successful crop of health cannabis in the Business ’s European Union (EU) Campus in Portugal. ”

With inflated prices, bans on edibles, heavy regulation of cultivators and limitations on private imports, customers continue dialing up their friendly local dealer to prevent all that. The Ontario legal bud market will require many years to gain significant ground on the black market. I believe it’s essential for investors to focus on companies that are growing or concentrated outside of Canada, are establishing brands and are not affected by the constraints in the Canadian retail market. Additionally, this is a follow up in my Oct. 4 account on the industry, where I cautioned that overinflated stocks had been due for a correction.
Tarulino’so called SōRSE emulsion technology encircles oils, changing the whole solution to water-compatible forms. All of this indicates that you can add cannabis to goods, such as beverages, without that “bud ” taste or odor. The Item also:
To help build its manufacturer, on Jan. 15 Tilray declared it has signed a long-term revenue sharing agreement to market and distribute a portfolio of consumer cannabis products in Actual Brands Group’s (ABG’s) brand portfolio in jurisdictions where regulations allow.


Canopy sold 10,102 kg of cannabis equivalent in the latest quarter, which might be 40,408 kg annually. Valens can process 250,000 kg per year, and just its bargain with Green Organic Dutchman, also Tilray is currently at 45,000 kg at the first year. In essence Valens will be processing and promoting more kilograms of cannabis equal than a variety of the major producers combined.
On Feb. 28 the firm shut the purchase of both Manitoba Harvest. “Founded in 1998, Manitoba Harvest is the planet ’s biggest hemp food maker and a leader in the organic foods industry. It produces, markets, markets and distributes a broad-based portfolio of hemp-based customer products, that are sold in over 16,000 shops at leading retailers across the U.S. and Canada. ”
(c) Copyright 2019, Struther’s Resource Stock Report



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Tilray is authorized to generate medial cannabis in Chile and via its Tilray Latin America subsidiary may import and distribute products in Chile and Brazil. Tilray currently includes medical cannabis products in 12 countries through subsidiaries in Australia and New Zealand, Canada Germany and Portugal, along with Latin America.

1) Ron Struthers: Ipersonally, or members of my immediate family or family, own shares of the following companies discussed in this article: Valens Groworks and Rise Life Science. I am, or members of my immediate family or family are, compensated by the following companies discussed in this article: Not one. My company currently has a financial connection with the following companies mentioned in this post: Valens Groworks and Rise Life Science are entrepreneurs at playstocks.net. Additional disclosures below. I decided which companies would be included in this article based on my research and comprehension of the industry.
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This is a 1978 stoner comedy that received mixed to negative reviews at the time. Nonetheless it had been a victory and is now regarded as a classic. As I remember it was about a couple of bumbling stoners that could not do much right and only a bit more in order that they were stoned.

There are many Benefits to a focus on oils and resins, for example:

This chart is at US$ price and that I see heavy resistance at the $50 to $55 area, which the stock has already tested in this rally. I see some service around $42 and robust support around $30. I see an excessive amount of risk to be long now, and when you are, I’d look to exit on a rally for $49 plus a stop/loss at $42.
Oil usage has grown at faster speeds than blossom usage since shortly after recreational legalization. You will find this is the case in Colorado, Washington and other lawful states. Also notice that Canopy reported oils at 33 percent of earnings, up from 23% in precisely the exact identical period this past year, which further attests to this.

By contrast the U.S. bud index produced a brand new bull market high in October 2018. The jury remains out on if the indicator can produce new highs. Provided that the index holds above the 105–110 area all is good, however a drop below that level could signal a substantial correction. The moves in the two indexes tend to be volatile, so moving over 20 percent in either direction.

RISE Life Science Corp. (RLSC:CSE) is quite interesting and a hidden gem

In ancient February RISE chose Solcanna SA de CV to act as a distributor of its Life Bloom Organics new cannabidiol-based health and health products in Mexico. According to the statement, “The initial purchase order executed with Solcanna will visit Life Bloom Organics’ wellness formulation originally placed in 3 primary Mexican markets: Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey. . .Solcanna and RISE have proposed this launch in the Mexican market with the first order of about $350,000 to put merchandise at retailers in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey. The expectation will be for recurring orders to be placed, other Mexican markets to be launched, and additional products to be added to RISE’s Mexican portfolio. ”

An obvious way it’s possible to verify the higher margins is considering some of the LPs recent financials which are selling oils. All of them claim greater dollar values per gram marketed, and attribute that increase to greater ratios of oil and concentrate sales.
Valens is already positioned as well or better than anyone for the beverage marketplace in 2019. Its multiyear deal with Tarukino Holdings provides Valens accessibility to Tarukino’s proprietary emulsion technologies , which transforms cannabis into a water-soluble form for drinks while hammering any cannabis taste. Valens also has the distribution rights in Canada for Tarukino’s hot Happy Apple beverage, Washington State’s #1 selling cannabis infused drink three years in a row, and also Pearl20, that may be employed to mix drinks and edibles.