Good morning traders, John Caruso comingto here on August 11th with your currency outlook for the day.
First we'lltake a peek back at last week, non-farm payrolls we did see a much strongerreading than expected.
209,000 payrolls added versus an expected 180,000.
We alsodid see the unemployment rate decline one basis point to 4.
3% so some strong data on that front.
This week we have seen a series ofinflation readings that have come in soft on a year-over-year basis soinflation continues to be a problem here in the US as well as in Europe.
PPIslowed to 1.
9% versus expected 2.
0% year-over-year, and CPIslowed from 1.
7% versus an expected 1.
That's one ofthe problems, probably the primary reason why the dollar's having a hard timegetting out of the woods right now.
The US dollar's trading down about 11% year-to-date, so it's been a rough go for the US dollar year-to-date.
Currently trading 9326 down 14.
I'm looking at thedollar from a standpoint of trying to play the trading range.
The range thatI've kind of mapped out is about 9250 on the low side, to about 95 onthe high side.
So you want to manage that trading range if you need to be tradingthe dollar here in the near term.
So right now trading 9326 we look at possibly becoming bullish from a near term perspective if the marketwere to dip back towards 9250.
Inversely looking at the Euro 11850 trading up26 right now.
Largely the Euro this week has been bouncing back andforth between 11750 and 11850.
We have seen a globalrepricing in the in the currency markets, perhaps it's because of the recentdovish rhetoric that we've seen out of the US Federal Reserve.
Actuallyafter this week's inflation readings, we have actually seen the that theprospects for a December rate hike here in the United States declined to 37%which the lowest we've seen it in quite some time actually for 2017 it's thelowest we've ever seen it.
So that's probably the main reason why the dollar'shave a trouble getting out of the woods, however we are starting to see some ofthe growth data.
I mean we're seeing very strong earningsreadings come in by the stock markets.
I think right now aggregate earningsgrowth in the Nasdaq is up roughly 13% for Q2.
So very strong data is stillcoming in from the the corporate side of things.
Taking a look at Europe again asI mentioned before they're having problems with inflation over there.
They're also starting to see some of the economic data that's rolled in over thepast two three weeks start to slow as well.
European Eurozone PMI, and manufacturing services all slowed in the last readingand we did see eurozone retail sales slowed in the previous reading as well.
So they're having some issues over there if you look at their stock market theGerman stock market and the French stock market both down approximately 7% sinceMay.
So we're seeing a correction in Europe from that regard.
I'm going toswitch gears here, we'll go to the Yen and just kind of give you a quicktechnical reading on the Yen.
Right now we're signaling immediate term overbought, right now the markets trading between 91 75 and 92.
If we stretch to perhaps 92 I probably look at becoming bearish on theYen for a near-term trade.
Forex traders, if you're following the US dollar versusYen cross, we're currently trading about 109 14 so I'd go about 109 to 118 75before you want to maybe become bullish on that cross just a quick reading onthe chart there.
So that's all I have for you, once again feel free to reach out tome anytime, I'll be around all day.
Good luck we'll talk to you next week!.