Good morning traders, John Caruso comingto you with your currency update for today.
We did havean action-packed week as far as the data is concerned we'll take a look back atthe Fed on Wednesday.
We did hear from a dovish Janet Yellen, which means that aFed interest rate hike for September seems to be off the table right now.
Theodds for December right rate hike are tracking at about 45 percent.
So belowthat 50 percent threshold so if anything's confirming a dovish Fedstance on monetary policy it's the US dollar.
The US dollar has continued toget beaten up here it's down over 6 percent year-to-date currently trackingat 93 41 with near-term support coming in about 93 and then again down along 92 50 I think 9250 could be the last line of defense for the US dollarbefore major support levels are taken out.
This is all in in the face ofsome fairly bullish data we've seen reported if you look at durable goods yesterday we didn't see a big upside upside surprise at six and ahalf percent the market was expecting three and a half percent.
We got capex tracking higher on a year-over-year basis I believe that's up5.
7 percent year-over-year so some pretty bullish numbers and then thismorning's GDP reading, the first estimate for Q2, came out at 2.
6 percent which isaccelerating on a year-over-year basis.
So I do believe that the dollar hasstretched to extreme levels I do expect us some support coming in.
Currentlyright now trading 9340 I'd say between here 93 so keep that in mind.
Also switchingover taking a look at the Euro, the Euro has obviously been winning out becauseof the the bearish US dollar currently trading 117 58 on the September Eurocontract.
I do have the Euro signaling immediate term overbought the top end ofthe range we could maybe squeeze to 118 before we find some resistance but Idon't think we're gonna see too much more of a stretch beyond 118 before wesee perhaps a corrective setback.
The one thing I'm watching right now pertainingto the Euro we did hear from the ECB last week from what Iperceived is a dovish policy statement and also if you look at European yields,European yields pulled back after the ECB meeting.
So we're kind of seeing adivergence between yields and the currency, the Euro, where typically theyields will move higher, the Euro will move higher, we're seeing a divergencethere so I don't believe that German yields European yields as well asobviously the German yields, I tracked the German boon,kind of used that as a benchmark.
I don't think they're pricing in any of thismove in the currency in the Euro currency.
So to see a corrective setbackin the Euro from here would not shock me one bit.
Also taking a look at theBritish Pound currently trading 131 11 we did see areversal on the charts yesterday on the daily chart.
I do believe we might see anear-term top here where we see a corrective setback perhaps back to thelow end of the range just below 130 at 129 85.
So we'll see if that developshere over the next few sessions.
That's all I have for you today, as always feelfree to reach out to me by email or by phone.
I'll be around all day we'll catchyou next week, thanks!.