Perfect Storm Brewing for Price Inflation

Sourced from: https://www.countingpips.com/2019/06/perfect-storm-brewing-for-price-inflation/

However, there’s a silver lining for precious metals investors…

Costco advised investors to see for higher prices on the merchandise they sell in the most recent earnings call. The giant recently declared”costs will go up on matters .”
CPI Gamble Surpassed 3% from Past Year

The nation may see a”perfect storm” in terms of food inflation. Prices for a farm commodities figure to be a whole great deal higher in the weeks ahead as markets adjust to dramatically lower crop yields. This will be coupled with price hikes associated with tariffs on all manner of products from China and everywhere.

A “perfect storm” is brewing for midwestern farmers. Unending rains have contributed to tens of millions of acres of farmland’s flood.
Bond yields are deeply inverted. Historically inversions of this sort have been a dark omen. They frequently indicate stock rates and a recession.

The adjacent chart is telling:

However, it isn’t at all certain that lowering rates can now forestall what is coming. Individuals and corporations have binged on debt. The expanding mountain of borrowed cash is weakening the nation’s economic prospects, but not creating them more powerful.
Given the central bankers’ obsession with all stock prices and ongoing pressure in the Trump government to steer clear of any major correction, even the Fed moving preemptively to cut interest rates isn’t surprising.
This amounts to bad information for the U.S. dollar and also for customers who will have to compete with higher prices.
President Trump increased the tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 25%. Americans can anticipate paying higher costs for consumer products in the months beforehand. The chart below shows recent CPI information through April.

CPI Inflation Surpassed 3% in Past Year (Chart)

S&P Forward Earnings Expectations
Over a billion Chinese need to be well fed up. What they do not purchase directly in the U.S. will need to be purchased everywhere. We could expect to find an increase in American exports into other areas.

Concerns over price inflation are absent from the economies for nearly a decade. Gold and silver economies are greatly reliant upon safe-haven demand as a key driver. With inflationary forces that need looks like it is about to spike.

The next move in interest rates now figures to be reduced.
It’s got the makings of the agriculture crisis on a scale not seen before.
Fed Chair Powell is utilizing the tariffs and also the prospect of price inflation as justification for altering class. He said the central bank“will behave as suitable to sustain the growth.” He along with his cohorts stand ready to combat a weakening jobs market and dwindling international trade by lowering interest prices.


Stock costs are riding on the”Fed Put.” There’s no wonderful earnings strength anymore. Stock investors just will not sell shares since they expect the Fed will step with stimulus.

Chinese tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods pushed prices reduced earlier in this year. However, the longer-term effect of these particular tariffs may wind up being less than many believe. The market for food products is global and demand is still somewhat inelastic.

That expectation is 100% logical given the central bank’s course record. But logic also dictates something else: stock costs will one day reflect earnings reality.

Skyhigh Food Prices

Grain and soybean prices are already on the go. Corn prices began growing rapidly in early May. Today the price per bushel is 20 percent greater than a month past. Wheat prices are 7% over the conclusion of a month past, and soybeans are 11% higher.
If lowering rates doesn’t function to prop up stock prices, we can count on the Fed to double down by dropping rates again or by discovering even more exotic and competitive methods to stimulate.